In its World Energy Outlook (WEO), the IEA forecasts that the extraordinary growth in oil and natural gas output in the United States will bring a sea-change in global energy flows.
In its New Policies Scenario, the IEA says, the United States could become a net exporter of natural gas by 2020 and be almost self-sufficient in energy, in net terms, by 2035.
Under the scenario, North America will emerge as a net oil exporter, accelerating the switch in direction of international oil trade, with almost 90 percent of Middle Eastern oil exports being drawn to Asia by 2035. Iraq becomes the second-largest global oil exporter, overtaking Russia.
Amid regional dynamics change, global energy demand will push ever higher, growing by more than one-third to 2035. China, India and the Middle East account for 60 percent of the growth; demand barely rises in the OECD, but there is a pronounced shift towards gas and renewables.
Fossil fuels will remain dominant in the global energy mix, supported by subsidies that in 2011, jumped by almost 30 percent to $523 billion, due mainly to increases in the Middle East and North Africa. Global oil consumption grows from 87.4 million barrels per day in 2011 to 99 million barels in 2035, by which time oil prices reach $125 per barrel in real terms.
In the scenario, demand for natural gas could increase by 50 percent to 5 trillion cubic meters in 2035. Nearly half of the increase in production to 2035 is from unconventional gas, with most of this coming from the United States, Australia and China.
Global coal demand will increase by 21 percent and be heavily focused in China and India, it says.
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