Should the court uphold the impeachment, South Korea will hold a presidential election within 60 days, as mandated by electoral law. Among the potential candidates are Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung, People Power Party leader Han Dong-hoon and Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon.
The impeachment motion, spearheaded by the opposition Democratic Party (DP) and supported by other progressive factions, garnered the necessary two-thirds majority in the National Assembly.
If the court accepts the decision, Yoon will become the second South Korean president to be ousted by impeachment following Park Geun-hye's removal in 2017.
Park, the nation's first female president, was jailed for bribery and abuse of power in a corruption scandal involving her confidante.
In 2004, President Roh Moo-hyun was impeached by parliament over alleged election law violations. However, the Constitutional Court reinstated him.
The nine-member Constitutional Court requires a majority of six judges to reach a decision. With only six of its nine seats currently filled, a unanimous agreement among the sitting justices is needed to uphold Yoon's impeachment. Both the ruling and opposition parties are racing to nominate candidates for the three vacant seats, as even a single dissenting vote could block the impeachment.
Legal analysts suggest that the impeachment is likely to be upheld.
“The appointment of the three vacant justice positions belongs to the National Assembly, with one nomination allocated to the People Power Party and two to the Democratic Party. Even if one of the current six justices opposes impeachment, the Constitutional Court would likely wait for the vacancies to be filled before finalizing its decision,” said Jeong Joo-baek, a professor at Chungnam National University Law School, in an interview with AJP.
“For the impeachment to fail, at least four of the nine justices would need to disagree,” Jeong added.
Prime Minister Han Duck-soo assumed the role of acting president during the court’s deliberation. However, Han himself is under scrutiny for alleged ties to the martial law crisis that led to Yoon’s impeachment, raising the possibility of his own ouster. If Han is impeached, Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok is next in line to assume the acting presidency.
The National Assembly is set to form an impeachment prosecution committee comprising nine lawmakers from across the political spectrum. This committee will collaborate with a legal delegation of 15 to 20 lawyers, led by a chief counsel, who will oversee trial proceedings and evidence collection.
The prosecution team is expected to convene weekly to build its case for the Constitutional Court, while Yoon’s defense team readies its counterarguments. The Court’s last impeachment trial, concerning former President Park Geun-hye, took three months to reach a verdict.
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