SEOUL, December 09 (AJP) - South Korea's broad money supply has ballooned to levels last seen during the pandemic stimulus peak, and the liquidity glut is weighing heavily on the won while narrowing policy maneuvering room for authorities.
M2 money supply, which includes bonds, time and savings deposits, and equity-type deposits, grew 8.5 percent to a record 4,430.5 trillion won ($3.01 trillion) as of September, Bank of Korea (BOK) data showed.
The growth far outpaces Korea’s sub-1 percent economic growth and is the steepest since November 2021, when fiscal and monetary stimulus was deployed at full scale to fight the pandemic recession.
Twin fiscal and monetary easing, asset inflation driven by hectic stock and housing purchases, and a widening current-account surplus all contributed to the extraordinary liquidity build-up.
Korea’s current-account surplus from January to October reached 89.58 billion dollars, the highest ever for the period and on track for an annual record of 115 billion dollars. The supplemental spending package approved in June added further liquidity, including 13.9 trillion won in consumption coupons across two rounds, according to the Korea Development Institute.
Korea’s M2 also counts Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), unlike other countries. ETF balances swelled alongside the near 70-percent rally in the KOSPI so far this year. Even excluding ETFs, M2 growth stands at 6.3 percent, still sharply above the U.S.’s 4.6 percent and more than three times Japan’s 1.8 percent.
BOK Governor Rhee Chang-yong acknowledged in a November rate briefing that “looking at the money flowing into the stock market, foreign exchange market, and real estate currently, it is true that a lot of liquidity has been released.”
The classic rule of thumb is that too much money supply dilutes currency value.
Experts argue the imbalance reflects policy failures, as radical stimulus inflated asset prices more than it strengthened the underlying economy. Former Financial Services Commission Chairman Kim Seok-dong pointed to the world’s highest level of household debt as the structural outcome of this misalignment.
Without remedying household leverage, which restricts both upward and downward policy flexibility, he said, the weak-won structure cannot be resolved.
Household loans reached an all-time high of 1,845 trillion won as of September. The household debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 89.7 percent in the second quarter, the second-highest globally. Mortgage loans accounted for 1,159.6 trillion won, more than 60 percent of total household loans, underscoring persistent demand for housing.
The stock boom added to the pressure: margin loan financing jumped to 27 trillion won as of December 5, up 68.5 percent from six months earlier, according to the Korea Financial Investment Association.
Analysts warn that the rapid monetary expansion risks stoking inflation and strengthening the debt cycle, further undermining the currency. The won has hovered around 1,470 per dollar for about a month, roughly 8 percent weaker than in June. Prolonged fixation in the upper 1,400 range, or a move toward 1,500, would raise concern for an economy dependent on imported energy and materials.
Inflation has remained above 2 percent for three consecutive months, rising 2.4 percent in October from a year earlier. Fuel prices have also jumped. The average gasoline price in Seoul reached 1,807 won per liter on December 7, up more than 80 won from early October, according to KNOC’s Opinet.
Under textbook conditions, defending the currency would require raising the policy rate. But the BOK faces a bind: growth is crawling, prices remain elevated, and household leverage makes additional tightening risky. As pressure builds, excess domestic liquidity has begun to escape through foreign exchange markets.
Korean nationals’ overseas stock purchases surged to 18 billion dollars in October, more than double September’s 8.5 billion and six times the 2.93 billion dollars foreign investors deployed into Korean stocks. Institutional outflows add structural pressure. The National Pension Service allocates 37.3 percent of its assets to overseas equities and 58 percent when including bonds and alternatives, creating chronic demand for foreign currency.
Authorities warn that textbook metrics alone will not calm the market. KB Kookmin Bank economist Lee Min-hyuk noted that Korea’s ratio of short-term foreign debt to foreign reserves is 38.3 percent, far below the 286 percent recorded at the height of the 1997 crisis. But he cautioned that leaving the weak-won structure unattended risks unnecessary FX market spending and, eventually, erosion of foreign confidence.
Copyright ⓒ Aju Press All rights reserved.