Middle East crisis: Korea pulled into war axis with 70% oil exposure

By Lee Jung-woo Posted : March 3, 2026, 16:43 Updated : March 3, 2026, 16:43
Graphics by AJP Song Ji-yoon
SEOUL, March 03 (AJP) - South Korea sources roughly 70 percent of its crude oil from the Middle East — and about 95 percent of that volume passes through the narrow Strait of Hormuz off Iran’s coast.

Tankers bound for Korea and other Asian destinations must transit the strategic waterway, navigating under the shadow of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which has threatened to “set fire” to vessels and “not let a single drop of oil leave the region.”

The warning sent immediate tremors through Seoul’s financial markets, contributing to a 6.6 percent plunge in the benchmark KOSPI on Tuesday.

According to the Korea Petroleum Association, 69.1 percent of the 1.028 billion barrels of crude oil South Korea imported last year came from the Middle East. Separately, 20.4 percent of liquefied natural gas imports were sourced from the region.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints. About 15 million barrels per day — roughly 27 percent of global seaborne crude oil trade — transit the strait.

The world’s largest tankers shuttle oil and gas from the Middle East to Asia through the 21-mile-wide, 100-mile-long passage, bordered by Iran to the north and Oman and the United Arab Emirates to the south.
 
Graphics by AJP Song Ji-yoon
Given that 65.65 percent of South Korea’s imported crude passed through Hormuz last year, a prolonged disruption would severely complicate the country’s energy procurement.

Seoul is preparing contingency measures should the oil shock intensify.

First Vice Minister of Economy and Finance Lee Hyoung-il said Tuesday that if “any signs of abnormality” emerge from the U.S.–Iran conflict, authorities would swiftly deploy the government’s 100 trillion won-plus market stabilization program in coordination with relevant agencies.

The government has held daily emergency meetings since the Feb. 28 strikes.

Officials stress that South Korea currently faces no immediate supply disruption, although traffic through the strait has slowed to a crawl since hostilities flared up over the weekend. 

The last Korean-flagged vessel to transit the passage was an HMM container ship that exited the Strait of Hormuz safely on Sunday without incident.
 
An aerial view of the Iranian shores and the island of Qeshm in the strait of Hormuz, December 10, 2023. Reuters-Yonhap
Authorities say strategic reserves provide a significant buffer. The International Energy Agency (IEA) recommends member states maintain emergency oil stocks equivalent to at least 90 days of net imports.

South Korea’s government-held crude reserves stand at about 100 million barrels — enough for 117 days of consumption. Including private-sector inventories, officials estimate the country has secured more than 200 days’ worth of supply.

Still, Lee said Seoul is exploring alternative sourcing outside the Middle East should the conflict drag on.

Jane Boulden, professor at the Royal Military College of Canada, said the immediate impact on countries such as South Korea would likely be economic.

“The first effect would be sustained increases in oil prices and disruptions to global supply chains if shipping restrictions persist,” she said.

Christian Lequesne, professor at Sciences Po, predicted short-term oil price spikes but noted that if Iran were to attack multiple Gulf states, stronger regional coordination could help contain price pressures.

“It would take time for the United States to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if Iran actively obstructs it,” Lequesne said, adding that such an operation would be difficult but “not impossible for the U.S. Navy.”
 
Christian Lequesne is a professor of international politics at Sciences Po. Courtesy of Christian Lequesne
The New York Times reported Monday that South Korea and Japan are among the Asian economies most vulnerable to a Hormuz blockade due to their heavy reliance on Middle Eastern energy and limited domestic production.

Japan imports about 90 percent of its crude oil from the Middle East and has stockpiled reserves equivalent to 254 days of supply as of the end of last year.

Japan’s three major shipping companies — Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, Nippon Yusen and Kawasaki Kisen — have suspended navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, ordering vessels to remain in safer waters, according to the Nikkei newspaper.

Like South Korea, Japan sources crude oil and LNG from the Middle East via Hormuz, underscoring the broader Asian exposure to any sustained blockade.
 
Smoke rises from the site of an Israeli airstrike on the southern suburbs of Beirut on March 3, 2026. AFP-Yonhap
South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) announced Wednesday that it has formed a “Middle East Situation Response Task Force” and is holding daily emergency review meetings chaired by its director.

Established on Feb. 28, the task force is monitoring supply-chain risks and providing real-time intelligence to relevant agencies. The NIS is conducting on-site inspections across the energy, logistics, defense and shipbuilding sectors in preparation for a potential Hormuz disruption.

The agency also warned that terrorist groups could exploit regional instability to stage attacks and said it is intensifying domestic and international terrorism risk assessments and preventive measures.

For now, South Korea remains shielded by its reserves and stable tanker operations. But with roughly two-thirds of its crude flowing through a single narrow corridor flanked by Iranian waters, the country remains tightly tethered to the trajectory of a widening Gulf conflict.

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