A surge in liquefied natural gas prices following the outbreak of war involving the United States and Israel and Iran is expected to deepen concerns in South Korea’s electricity-intensive steel and petrochemical industries, which are highly sensitive to power costs. The jump in fuel costs could strengthen the government’s reluctance to expand electricity-rate relief, potentially disrupting steelmakers’ carbon-neutral plans and the petrochemical sector’s efforts to consolidate naphtha cracking capacity.
Industry officials said on the 4th that the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy and the Ministry of Climate, Energy and Environment began consultations this month to draft an enforcement decree for the Special Act to Strengthen Steel Industry Competitiveness and Support the Transition to Carbon Neutrality, known as the K-Steel law, which takes effect in June.
A key issue is whether the decree will include provisions to cut electricity rates. As domestic steelmakers accelerate a shift from coal-fired blast furnaces to lower-carbon electric arc furnaces in line with the government’s 2030 carbon-neutral policy and the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, electricity prices have become a major driver of production costs.
The National Assembly and the industry ministry are said to be supportive of rate relief through the decree. But the climate ministry, which holds authority over electricity pricing, is negative. Experts cite Korea Electric Power Corp.’s heavy debt burden as a major reason. KEPCO had total debt of 206 trillion won and borrowings of 130 trillion won as of last year, leaving its finances under strain.
KEPCO posted operating profit of 13.5248 trillion won last year, helped by four years of increases in industrial electricity rates to 181.9 won per kilowatt-hour and lower fuel costs as global LNG prices fell. However, with LNG prices rising sharply since the start of the year due to the Iran war, it is unclear whether strong results will continue this year. Industry officials expect that, amid firm opposition from the climate ministry, electricity-rate relief is likely to be excluded from the K-Steel law decree.
If the anticipated relief does not materialize, major steelmakers such as POSCO and Hyundai Steel would likely have to revise their carbon-neutral road maps. The industry is expected to recalibrate domestic investment in electric arc furnaces and speed up plans to build an integrated electric arc furnace steel mill in Louisiana, where electricity costs are said to be 30% to 40% lower than in South Korea.
The petrochemical industry says conditions are even tougher. Higher LNG prices threaten to blunt the impact of previously announced power-support measures, while prices for Middle Eastern crude oil and naphtha — key feedstocks for petrochemical products — have continued to rise.
On Feb. 25, the government announced a support package for petrochemical integration, including financial, tax and cost measures, in exchange for cuts in commodity petrochemical output such as ethylene through the consolidation of naphtha cracking centers. HD Hyundai Chemical and Lotte Chemical at the Daesan industrial complex were named as the first beneficiaries.
The package includes a plan to designate the Daesan complex as a distributed energy special zone, allowing companies to buy electricity directly from private power producers instead of KEPCO, addressing the difficulty of providing direct rate cuts to the petrochemical sector given KEPCO’s accumulated losses. The aim is to reduce distribution steps and transmission costs so petrochemical firms can use electricity at prices 4% to 5% lower than the general grid.
But because most private generators rely on LNG, their power prices are highly sensitive to fuel costs. Unlike the general grid, where KEPCO can partially absorb fuel-cost shocks through measures such as freezing rates, companies worry that LNG price increases would translate directly into higher electricity bills on private networks.
A petrochemical industry official said the spike in raw material prices tied to the Iran war was a severe blow for companies that had been getting some relief from higher commodity product prices. The official warned that if the war drags on, more firms may be unable to withstand mounting losses and could halt plant operations.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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