South Korea Faces Must-Win vs Australia, Needs Big Margin to Reach WBC Quarterfinals

South Korea players walk off the field in disappointment after a 5-4 loss to Taiwan in the bottom of the 10th inning at the Tokyo Dome in Tokyo on March 8 in Pool C of the 2026 WBC. (Yonhap)

South Korea’s national baseball team is on the brink of a fourth straight World Baseball Classic group-stage exit and must win its finale against Australia before turning to tiebreaker math. Even a victory may not be enough.

Manager Ryu Ji-hyun’s team plays Australia at 7 p.m. on March 9 at the Tokyo Dome in Tokyo in its fourth Pool C game of the 2026 WBC.

South Korea is 1-2 in pool play. It opened with an 11-4 win over the Czech Republic on March 5, then lost 8-6 to Japan on March 7 and fell 5-4 to Taiwan in the bottom of the 10th inning on March 8. South Korea is fourth in the group behind Japan (3-0), Australia (2-1) and Taiwan (2-2).

To reach the quarterfinals in Miami, teams must finish in the top two. That leaves South Korea needing a win over Australia to have any chance.

If South Korea beats Australia, South Korea, Australia and Taiwan would all finish 2-2. The tournament’s tiebreakers are head-to-head results, fewest runs allowed, fewest earned runs allowed, batting average and, if needed, a drawing of lots. In a three-way tie, head-to-head does not break the deadlock, so runs allowed becomes decisive. Only games among the tied teams count; results against Japan and the Czech Republic are excluded.

South Korea allowed five runs in 10 innings against Taiwan. Taiwan has allowed seven runs in 18 innings against South Korea and Australia, while Australia posted a nine-inning shutout against Taiwan.

For South Korea to finish ahead of both Australia and Taiwan, it needs to win a nine-inning game against Australia by at least five runs. Runs allowed also matter: If South Korea gives up three or more, it would trail Taiwan on runs allowed rate.

That means South Korea must beat Australia by at least five runs while allowing two or fewer in a nine-inning game to advance to the quarterfinals.

South Korea pitcher Son Ju-young delivers after entering in the fifth inning against Japan at the Tokyo Dome in Tokyo on March 7 in Pool C of the 2026 WBC. (Yonhap)

South Korea will start left-hander Son Ju-young of the LG Twins, with the team needing to keep runs to a minimum. Son pitched one scoreless inning in relief against Japan on March 7, allowing one hit.

Son has performed well in big games, posting a 2.45 ERA in five career KBO postseason appearances.

Australia will start left-hander Lachlan Wells of LG. He pitched in South Korea last season as a replacement foreign player for the Kiwoom Heroes and joined LG this season under the league’s Asia quota.

* This article has been translated by AI.

Kang Sang Heon ksh@ajunews.com