The idea of awarding portions of the project to both bidders — sometimes described as a “6+6” split procurement — has circulated in Canadian media as Ottawa weighs final proposals from a South Korean consortium and a rival bid led by Germany and Norway.
But South Korean officials say the option is not under consideration.
Kim Jung-kwan, South Korea’s minister of trade, industry and resources, told lawmakers at a parliamentary committee meeting Monday that Canadian officials had made it clear there were no plans to divide the order between multiple suppliers.
Analysts broadly agree.
One major obstacle is the program’s financial structure. The Canadian Patrol Submarine Project (CPSP) — valued at roughly $40 billion and aimed at replacing Canada’s aging Victoria-class submarine fleet — was designed on the assumption that a single supplier would deliver the entire fleet of up to 12 submarines.
Splitting the order between two countries would require separate contracts, logistics networks and maintenance systems, likely pushing the overall cost significantly higher.
Given the political sensitivity surrounding defense spending in Canada, analysts say Ottawa would face difficulty justifying such increases.
Operational considerations pose another hurdle.
Running two different submarine classes would complicate maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) operations as well as day-to-day fleet management. Separate supply chains, spare-parts inventories, training programs and shore infrastructure would be required for each platform, eroding economies of scale and raising life-cycle costs.
The debate over a possible split comes as the CPSP reaches a key stage.
The Korean bid is led by Hanwha Ocean, with participation from HD Hyundai Heavy Industries.
A Hyundai Heavy Industries official said Hanwha Ocean handled the formal submission of the proposal documents.
Ottawa is currently reviewing the bids, with a preferred bidder expected to be selected between May and June, followed by contract negotiations.
Canadian officials have emphasized that the project is intended not merely as a procurement deal but as a long-term defense-industrial partnership.
According to the Canadian government’s project guidelines, bidders must propose not only submarine construction but also long-term in-service support, supply-chain development and industrial partnerships with Canadian companies.
Both competitors have therefore focused heavily on local industrial cooperation.
TKMS has strengthened ties with Canadian firms in recent months. According to naval industry outlet Naval Today, the German shipbuilder recently signed a partnership with Canadian simulation and training company CAE to develop submarine crew training and maintenance support systems.
The company is also working with Canadian aerospace manufacturer Magellan Aerospace to explore cooperation in heavy-torpedo production and maintenance, while proposing next-generation digital operational technologies through partnerships with artificial-intelligence firms.
Hanwha Ocean has reportedly outlined cooperation with Canadian companies in areas including steel, satellite communications, artificial intelligence and battery technology as part of its supply-chain development plan.
Hyundai Motor Group has suggested potential collaboration within Canada’s hydrogen industry ecosystem.
Industry observers say long-term sustainment capabilities will likely prove decisive in the competition.
“Maintenance costs are just as important as the initial acquisition price for submarines,” one industry source said. “The ability to secure personnel and infrastructure for long-term operations and maintenance will be a crucial evaluation factor.”
Some analysts say recent developments may slightly improve South Korea’s chances.
Volkswagen Group, previously seen as a potential industrial partner supporting the German bid, recently said it would not participate in the Canadian submarine program.
According to local media reports, Volkswagen CEO Oliver Blume said Tuesday that the company would not take part in the procurement project, effectively declining Ottawa’s request for additional industrial investment linked to the German proposal.
The move, analysts say, could modestly strengthen the South Korean consortium’s position as Ottawa weighs the competing bids.
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