Market sentiment is sharply diverging over two AI giants expected to pursue IPOs, a split underscored by Amazon’s latest move involving Anthropic.
Amazon has agreed to a conditional commitment of up to $25 billion in additional investment in Anthropic, according to the IT industry on Monday. The amount is more than triple Amazon’s existing $8 billion investment, but it is not a finalized disbursement.
Investor demand for Anthropic has already become visible. In February, the company ran a $30 billion funding round that drew subscriptions more than six times its initial target, leaving demand outstripping supply. Some venture capital firms have also been reported to have approached the company with interest based on an $80 billion valuation.
Driving the rush is competition to secure stakes ahead of a potential IPO. Anthropic is widely seen as likely to list on U.S. markets in the fourth quarter of this year. Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley have been mentioned as potential underwriters, and Chris Liddell, described as a former Microsoft chief financial officer, has joined the board. The fundraising target is more than $60 billion; if completed, it would be the second-largest IPO on record after SpaceX, the report said. That prospect is pushing institutions to seek pre-IPO shares.
OpenAI is also aiming for a fourth-quarter listing, but its internal situation differs. The report said there are disagreements between the CEO and CFO over timing, and some observers believe the IPO could slip to 2027.
The market’s temperature toward the two companies is diverging most clearly on valuation. Industry sources said OpenAI would need a post-IPO valuation of at least $1.2 trillion to justify investment, while Anthropic’s current valuation is $380 billion. That implies OpenAI’s threshold for investors to recoup their money is more than three times Anthropic’s valuation.
Signals from the private market have been more direct. Bloomberg reported on March 1 that about six large institutions, including hedge funds and venture capital firms, approached the over-the-counter market seeking to sell $600 million worth of OpenAI shares. Some of that stock was said to be difficult to sell. By contrast, demand for Anthropic shares has been described as close to unlimited.
Amazon’s positioning adds another layer. Amazon, Anthropic’s largest shareholder since it began investing in 2023, also struck a deal in February involving a $50 billion investment in OpenAI and a $10 billion AWS cloud contract. The latest Anthropic commitment is being read not as a bet on a single model, but as an extension of a cloud strategy to capture AWS infrastructure demand regardless of which company wins. Anthropic, through the deal, has agreed to spend more than $100 billion on AWS over the next 10 years.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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