Iran’s leadership is facing a new test as differences emerge over negotiations with the United States to end the war, according to an analysis.
The AP reported Monday that Iran has kept its system running without a power vacuum since the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, but the coming talks with Washington could expose internal fractures. Khamenei long managed competing power blocs and kept tight, centralized control. Now, with civilian politicians and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ military leadership among multiple centers of power, it is unclear who ultimately drives decisions.
After Khamenei’s death, his son, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, was named as a successor, but his role remains uncertain. He has not appeared publicly since reports said he was wounded in an airstrike.
In this environment, the Supreme National Security Council is widely seen as the current hub of power. It includes senior civilian and military figures, and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf has taken a leading public role in steering talks with the United States.
The council brings together reform-minded President Masoud Pezeshkian alongside hard-line conservatives and military officials, mixing competing interests. Analysts say the layered structure has helped the system endure.
Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, said, “The leadership was able to survive thanks to overlapping centers of power,” adding that “factionalism is embedded in the DNA of this (Iranian) system.”
AP said the same structure could become a source of conflict as negotiations advance. Iranian leaders believe they hold an advantage after blocking the Strait of Hormuz, but U.S. maritime interdiction and economic sanctions are fueling economic damage and anxiety at home. Iran also saw protests late last year calling for the government’s overthrow.
In that context, any agreement with the West, including sanctions relief, is expected to be a key factor in maintaining internal control. Vaez said the government may find it more realistic to make concessions to the West for survival than to make concessions to its own people.
Recent confusion over the Strait of Hormuz has been cited as a case that exposed internal disagreement. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced a plan to reopen the waterway, but military authorities later reversed that position, raising questions about policy coordination.
Qalibaf has dismissed claims of divisions and said the leadership is maintaining a single line in its negotiating strategy. Still, analysts say the risk of internal splits remains as talks move forward.
AP reported that Qalibaf is emerging as a figure who could broker interests among factions. A former IRGC general and former national police chief, he is seen as able to bridge competing camps. He showed a pragmatic streak as Tehran’s mayor and has support not only among conservatives but also among reformist and centrist groups, making him a key player in managing internal differences during negotiations.
He has also maintained close ties to the Khamenei family and has strong links to the newly ascendant IRGC leadership. Those connections could help him secure domestic backing across conservative, military, reformist and centrist circles as Iran seeks an agreement with the United States, AP said.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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