National Assembly Speaker Woo Won-shik said a constitutional amendment slated for a May 7 plenary session could pass if lawmakers are allowed a free vote, but the measure faces headwinds.
The People Power Party has declared its opposition as a party line. At the same time, Democratic Party lawmakers who were selected as candidates for metropolitan mayor and governor races in the June 3 local elections have said they will resign en masse on the 29th, increasing the burden of securing defections from the People Power Party.
To pass in the plenary session, a constitutional amendment requires approval from at least two-thirds of sitting members. As of the 21st, with 295 members, the threshold is 197 votes.
If the Democratic Party candidates resign, the number of sitting members would fall to 287. Some have argued the party could delay resignations until the 30th. Under the current Public Official Election Act, by-elections in the first half of the year are held for vacancies confirmed by the 30th, while the deadline for an incumbent to resign to run in local elections is May 4. However, party leader Jeong Cheong-rae has said the candidates will not use a loophole and will resign together on the 29th.
If either Rep. Choo Kyung-ho or Rep. Yoo Young-ha, who are in a runoff for the People Power Party’s Daegu mayoral nomination, resigns after winning, the total would drop by one more seat. Rep. Kang Sun-woo, who is incarcerated, is also widely expected to be absent.
Assuming Kang does not participate, passage would require at least 12 votes from the People Power Party: with 286 sitting members, 191 votes would be needed, and excluding Kang and the People Power Party leaves 179 seats. That is two more defections than the 10 needed under the current count of 295 members, where 197 votes are required and the non-People Power Party total excluding Kang is 187. In the People Power Party, only Reps. Kim Yong-tae and Cho Kyung-tae have publicly signaled support.
Woo and six parties — the Democratic Party, the Rebuilding Korea Party, the Progressive Party, the New Reform Party, the Social Democratic Party and the Basic Income Party — agreed to pursue the amendment and introduced it on the 3rd.
The proposal seeks to revise the Constitution that has been in place for 39 years since 1987. Its core aim is to prevent a repeat of the “12·3 martial law” by tightening the requirements for declaring martial law and neutralizing the president’s authority to do so.
If the amendment fails in the May 7 plenary session, observers say the chances of passage in the second half of the year would be even lower. Of 14 districts expected to hold by-elections, 13 were previously held by the Democratic Party, making a clean sweep difficult to guarantee.
Tensions have also surfaced between the Democratic Party and smaller progressive parties during efforts to pass political reforms, and they remain divided over possible election cooperation. Rep. Jeong Chun-saeng of the Rebuilding Korea Party voiced frustration during an April 18 plenary session, saying, “Are we only needed when it’s time to end a filibuster?”
* This article has been translated by AI.
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