Government projections for electricity demand and modeled peak demand. (Climate, Energy and Environment Ministry)
The government projected South Korea’s 2040 target peak electricity demand at 131.8 gigawatts, reflecting expected growth from electrification and advanced industries. That is 2.5 GW higher than the target demand through 2038 in the 11th Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand, despite only a two-year extension in the horizon.
The Climate, Energy and Environment Ministry presented the outlook on Tuesday at a public forum in Seoul on demand projections for the 12th power supply-and-demand plan.
The ministry said it separately forecast minimum demand during spring and fall shoulder seasons to improve year-round accuracy. On the demand-management side, it said it reviewed load-shifting resources to encourage optimal electricity use in response to renewable-energy variability.
For 2040 electricity consumption, the ministry put baseline-scenario “base demand” at 780.8 terawatt-hours and “target demand” at 657.6 TWh. Under an upside scenario, it projected 819.6 TWh for base demand and 694.1 TWh for target demand.
For annual peak demand in 2040, the baseline scenario projected 149.9 GW for base demand and 131.8 GW for target demand. Under the upside scenario, it projected 156.8 GW for base demand and 138.2 GW for target demand.
The ministry said the forecast combines “modeled demand” with “additional demand” tied to electrification, including new investment in advanced industries, data centers, and the spread of electric vehicles and heat pumps.
It said rising data-center demand linked to the development of artificial intelligence was reflected in the outlook. For 2040, it projected data-center electricity consumption at 26.5 TWh and peak demand at 4.0 GW. Compared with the 11th plan’s 2038 projection of 15.5 TWh and 4.4 GW, consumption rose while peak demand edged down.
The outlook for advanced industries was also sharply revised. The ministry estimated 2040 electricity consumption at 27.4 to 29.3 TWh and peak demand at 3.7 to 4.0 GW. That compares with the 11th plan’s 2038 projection of 1.1 TWh and 1.4 GW.
Still, some participants said the ministry should have prepared a downside scenario, such as slower economic growth or a case in which the 2035 nationally determined contribution, or NDC, is not met.
At the forum, Yu Seung-hoon, a professor at Seoul National University of Science and Technology, said Japan’s 7th Strategic Energy Plan, finalized in February, included a scenario in which NDCs are not implemented. “If there is an upside scenario, there should also be a downside scenario as an emergency plan,” he said.
The Climate, Energy and Environment Ministry presented the outlook on Tuesday at a public forum in Seoul on demand projections for the 12th power supply-and-demand plan.
The ministry said it separately forecast minimum demand during spring and fall shoulder seasons to improve year-round accuracy. On the demand-management side, it said it reviewed load-shifting resources to encourage optimal electricity use in response to renewable-energy variability.
For 2040 electricity consumption, the ministry put baseline-scenario “base demand” at 780.8 terawatt-hours and “target demand” at 657.6 TWh. Under an upside scenario, it projected 819.6 TWh for base demand and 694.1 TWh for target demand.
For annual peak demand in 2040, the baseline scenario projected 149.9 GW for base demand and 131.8 GW for target demand. Under the upside scenario, it projected 156.8 GW for base demand and 138.2 GW for target demand.
The ministry said the forecast combines “modeled demand” with “additional demand” tied to electrification, including new investment in advanced industries, data centers, and the spread of electric vehicles and heat pumps.
It said rising data-center demand linked to the development of artificial intelligence was reflected in the outlook. For 2040, it projected data-center electricity consumption at 26.5 TWh and peak demand at 4.0 GW. Compared with the 11th plan’s 2038 projection of 15.5 TWh and 4.4 GW, consumption rose while peak demand edged down.
The outlook for advanced industries was also sharply revised. The ministry estimated 2040 electricity consumption at 27.4 to 29.3 TWh and peak demand at 3.7 to 4.0 GW. That compares with the 11th plan’s 2038 projection of 1.1 TWh and 1.4 GW.
Still, some participants said the ministry should have prepared a downside scenario, such as slower economic growth or a case in which the 2035 nationally determined contribution, or NDC, is not met.
At the forum, Yu Seung-hoon, a professor at Seoul National University of Science and Technology, said Japan’s 7th Strategic Energy Plan, finalized in February, included a scenario in which NDCs are not implemented. “If there is an upside scenario, there should also be a downside scenario as an emergency plan,” he said.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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