The government said Thursday that South Korea’s stronger-than-expected first-quarter gross domestic product growth reflected a combination of a semiconductor-led upswing, policy support and a swift response to the Middle East war. It cautioned, however, that a second-quarter slowdown is likely as base effects fade and war-related risks intensify.
The Bank of Korea said real GDP grew 1.7% in the first quarter from the previous quarter, a preliminary estimate. That was well above the central bank’s February forecast of 0.9%.
A Finance and Economy Ministry official said the first-quarter figure was the highest since the third quarter of 2020 and that growth momentum that had been building since the second half of last year accelerated further in the first quarter.
The government pointed to a recovery in exports led by semiconductors and the impact of policy measures as key drivers. The official said improved conditions in semiconductors and other IT sectors outperformed earlier expectations, boosting exports and equipment investment. He added that measures including a supplementary budget passed last July, stronger electric-vehicle subsidies and policies to invigorate capital markets helped support a rebound in domestic demand.
The official also highlighted a private-sector-led pattern. Private consumption rose 0.5% from the previous quarter. Equipment investment climbed 4.8% on semiconductor equipment spending and increased purchases of corporate vehicles and aircraft. Construction investment rose 2.8% on more groundbreaking for semiconductor plants and higher housing supply. Exports increased 5.1%, supported by strong semiconductor shipments and more foreign tourists.
The government assessed the Middle East war’s impact as limited in the first quarter. The official said the war began in late February, leaving little time for effects to be reflected, and that steps such as an oil price cap helped prevent a sharp pullback in consumption. He said early indicators, including March credit card approvals, also showed a solid trend.
From the second quarter, he said, conditions could change. The official said quarter-on-quarter growth would likely be adjusted lower as base effects from the strong first quarter combine with tighter supplies of construction materials and higher oil prices as the war’s impact is more fully reflected. He said the semiconductor upturn and government policies could provide some cushion, but uncertainty remains high.
On the full-year outlook, the official said the government has set a goal of 2% growth this year, but that the annual path needs closer monitoring given rising external uncertainty, including how the Middle East situation develops.
The government said it will seek to limit downside risks by quickly executing the supplementary budget and preparing additional measures to support consumption. The official said more than 85% of supplementary budget projects will be executed in the first half, alongside Middle East-related response steps to ease negative effects. He added that the government also plans to speed up work on structural reforms and longer-term growth strategies.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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