According to the International Energy Agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration and Reuters on the 23rd, the key near-term variable remains when shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal.
Markets have been most sensitive to the risk of supply disruptions. Reuters reported that Brent crude on the 22nd rose above $100 a barrel (about 159 liters). The EIA said that even if Hormuz traffic resumes gradually, the Brent-WTI spread could widen to $15 a barrel in April, as bottlenecks for Middle Eastern crude headed to Asia push up shipping rates and procurement costs.
Some factors could still drive prices higher in the near term. Citi said global crude and petroleum product inventories could fall by about 900 million barrels by the end of June even if a U.S.-Iran ceasefire is extended and Hormuz shipping and production normalize by late June. The IMF warned that if supply disruptions exceed its baseline scenario, global growth this year could slow to 2.5% while inflation could rise to 5.4%.
Conditions that could pull prices down become clearer in the second half of the year. Eight OPEC+ countries agreed to raise output by 206,000 barrels a day starting in May, and Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are increasing volumes through alternative export routes. If bottlenecks ease even partly, prices could give back gains driven by disruption fears.
Demand forecasts, however, diverge sharply. In its report this month, the IEA said global oil demand this year would fall by an average of 80,000 barrels a day, reversing its forecast a month earlier for a 730,000-barrel-a-day increase. OPEC, by contrast, projected demand would rise by 1.4 million barrels a day. The split underscores how prices may be swayed less by supply-demand balances than by how far the war spreads and how long it lasts.
Over the medium term, institutions are leaning toward lower prices. The IEA said global energy demand growth slowed to 1.3% last year, while electric vehicle sales topped 20 million, about 25% of new-car sales. Growth in global oil demand was just 0.7%. U.S. crude output is expected to rise to 13.61 million barrels a day in 2026 and 13.83 million in 2027.
The EIA forecast Brent spot prices would average $115 a barrel in the second quarter, then fall below $90 in the fourth quarter as production disruptions ease. The IMF put oil at $82.22 a barrel in 2026 and $75.97 in 2027. Morgan Stanley projected Brent at $110 in the second quarter this year, $100 in the third quarter and $80 in 2027.
* This article has been translated by AI.
Copyright ⓒ Aju Press All rights reserved.