According to the Financial Times and Vitol disclosures on the 23rd, CEO Russell Hardy said at the FT Global Commodities Summit in Lausanne, Switzerland, that “600 million to 700 million barrels of supply have already disappeared, and losses could reach at least 1 billion barrels before the market recovers.” The FT reported that even if the war ended tomorrow, combined losses in crude and refined products could still reach that level as production, refining and logistics normalize.
Hardy said about 12 million barrels a day of hydrocarbon supply is currently off the market, and he estimated refining volumes are down by roughly 6 million barrels a day. He said product inventories of 300 million to 400 million barrels are filling a short-term demand gap, but described them as only a temporary buffer that will ultimately need to be replenished.
He also cautioned on demand. Hardy said demand has fallen by 4 million barrels a day so far and could drop further if the situation drags on, as the shock spreads from supply disruptions to slower growth and weaker consumption.
A key variable is the Strait of Hormuz. The FT said Hardy believes the market impact could last longer if the blockade near the strait continues. Energy Intelligence also reported that Hardy warned a prolonged blockade would add downward pressure on global demand.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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