With earnings season getting underway, South Korea’s securities firms are expected to post sharply improved first-quarter results, driven mainly by retail businesses such as brokerage trading and wealth management, analysts say. A stock-market rally has boosted trading value, which feeds directly into fee income. Investment banking, by contrast, has grown more slowly, reinforcing a shift in profit engines from IB to retail, according to market watchers.
As of the 23rd, FnGuide estimates combined first-quarter net profit for five listed firms — Korea Financial Group, Mirae Asset Securities, NH Investment & Securities, Samsung Securities and Kiwoom Securities — at about 2.82 trillion won. That would be double the 1.41 trillion won posted a year earlier. Combined operating profit is estimated at 3.77 trillion won, up 106.6% from the same period last year.
The improvement is tied to increased inflows into equities. The Korea Exchange said average daily trading value in the KOSPI market in the first quarter totaled 29.65 trillion won, up 78% from 16.56 trillion won in the fourth quarter of 2025. Because higher turnover translates into higher brokerage commission revenue, trading value is closely linked to securities firms’ earnings.
Within retail, wealth management is expected to stand out. Most large firms reportedly met more than half of their annual WM revenue targets in the first quarter alone, and some are said to have already reached their full-year goals.
IB, often described as the industry’s marquee business, is losing relative weight. While demand for corporate finance has remained steady, its earnings growth has not kept pace with retail, analysts say.
The pattern has been evident since last year, when the market rally began. Average daily KOSPI trading value rose from 10.7 trillion won in 2024 to 16.9 trillion won in 2025, and major securities firms posted strong results over the same period. Higher turnover and greater participation by individual investors helped drive a surge in brokerage revenue.
Last year, major firms’ brokerage revenue rose about 30% to 40% from a year earlier, while IB revenue growth was around 10%, according to the analysis. A downturn in the real estate project financing, or PF, market was cited as a factor.
Industry officials expect the retail-led profit structure to persist for now, though some warn it could deepen polarization among firms. Large brokerages can capture trading flows with broad client bases and strong platforms, while small and midsize firms face limits in capital and brand strength. About 75% of the domestic retail market is concentrated among the top 10 large securities firms, while smaller firms account for only about 10%, the report said.
Yeo Mil-lim, a senior researcher at the Korea Capital Market Institute, said the sustainability of PF-centered business models has weakened as PF risks materialize and regulation tightens. Large firms, Yeo said, are diversifying by strengthening WM-dedicated teams and family office capabilities, expanding profit and loss tied to financial products, increasing overseas branches and boosting global investment.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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