China’s imports are expected to rise sharply this year, supported by expanding investment in artificial intelligence, according to a forecast cited by Bloomberg News.
Bloomberg reported on April 26 (local time) that a survey this month of 17 economists put China’s 2026 import growth at 5%. That is more than double the March estimate and would be the strongest increase in five years, marking a break from four years of stagnation and declines.
The forecast for export growth was also revised up, to 4.9% from 3.6%. Even so, the goods trade surplus is expected to come in only slightly above about $1.2 trillion, little changed from 2025, suggesting the expansion of the surplus seen over the past two years may slow.
Serena Zhou, chief economist at Mizuho Securities, said “the Chinese government recognizes that a massive trade surplus is not sustainable.” While she expects imports to rise 7.5% this year, she added that “overseas demand remains the key growth driver” and that “the recovery in domestic demand is not yet clear.”
China’s trade has held up better than expected despite an energy supply shock triggered by the Iran war. In the first quarter of 2026, imports rose 23% from a year earlier and exports increased 15%, both posting double-digit gains.
At the same time, the imbalance in the economy is deepening as industrial output and investment expand while consumption remains weak. The International Monetary Fund has said this structure is contributing to wider global imbalances.
A surge in imports in March was driven by stronger demand for semiconductors and advanced manufacturing equipment linked to AI investment. Pantheon Macroeconomics said the value of semiconductor imports jumped 54% from a year earlier, accounting for about one-third of the overall increase. Import volumes, however, rose 14%, indicating higher prices also played a role.
An expected global increase in AI investment — projected at about $2.5 trillion this year — has become a key driver of Asian trade. China has emerged as the largest supplier of AI-related products, but it still relies heavily on imports for core technologies such as advanced semiconductors.
Standard Chartered said China’s AI-related imports mainly come from Taiwan and South Korea, and that exports from both economies to China have risen sharply.
Other factors supporting import growth include a stronger yuan and higher commodity prices. The yuan has gained about 7% against the dollar over the past year, boosting purchasing power, while rising copper and aluminum prices have lifted the value of related imports.
Global oil prices have not yet had a major impact on China’s imports, with March crude oil imports only slightly lower.
Still, reduced shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could become a headwind for energy imports. Pantheon Macroeconomics forecast April import values for oil and gas will fall 14% and 18%, respectively.
On the export side, analysts said some spillover benefits from the war are also supporting demand. With interest rising in electric vehicles and solar panels, Chinese companies are expanding their presence in overseas markets.
Erica Tay, an economist at Maybank Securities, said China’s economy showed greater resilience to the supply shock from the Iran war than other Asian economies, adding that stronger demand for electric vehicles and solar power products is benefiting Chinese firms.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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