“The most dangerous moment for South Korea is not all-out war, but when a neither-war-nor-peace stalemate hardens into a new normal after six months.”
A war-game simulation run on April 28 using Anthropic’s AI agent model, Claude Opus, found the most worrying outcome in the U.S.-Iran end-of-war talks was not a full-scale conflict but a prolonged stalemate. The risk of immediate escalation eased after U.S. President Donald Trump declared an “indefinite ceasefire,” but the simulation warned that for energy-vulnerable countries such as South Korea, a drawn-out impasse could bring what it called a “quiet ruin.”
Trump’s zigzags: Claude calls it “advanced psychological warfare” aimed at division
The simulation was based on the situation in which Trump, on the morning of the 22nd in Korean time, abruptly announced an “indefinite extension” ahead of the ceasefire’s expiration. In the war game, the Trump agent (Agent A) described his approach as making the other side “not know where to run.”Claude interpreted Trump’s reversals not as whim but as a populist strategy designed to upset the balance between Iran’s hard-liners (the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) and moderates (the Foreign Ministry), while also managing U.S. gasoline prices ahead of midterm elections. In response, the IRGC agent (Agent B) labeled the U.S. extension “strategic deception” and answered with steps including laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz and warning shots at U.S. naval vessels. The AI depiction showed moderates’ room for diplomacy narrowing quickly amid internal power struggles.
Prolonged stalemate put at 59%, seen as worst case for South Korea
Claude assigned a 22% probability to a full-scale war and 19% to a dramatic negotiated breakthrough. The highest probability — 59% — was a prolonged stalemate. It described that outcome as a “gray zone” in which no one clearly loses, but everyone absorbs slow damage.For South Korea, the simulation called it the worst scenario. If the stalemate lasts more than six months, it projected West Texas Intermediate crude would settle at $140 to $150 a barrel. Domestic gasoline prices were projected to rise to around 2,700 won per liter, and South Korea’s annual energy import bill to increase by as much as $42 billion.
The cost shock to manufacturing was described as severe. Claude projected that in four strategic sectors — petrochemicals, refining, shipping and aviation — cumulative operating losses over six months could reach up to 12 trillion won. Automakers and semiconductor firms were also projected to see operating profit fall by more than 15% due to indirect effects such as higher logistics costs, while the 2026 GDP growth outlook was projected to slip from 1.7% to the low 1% range.
In the AI’s framing, institutionalized uncertainty reduces Trump’s political burden and lets Iran’s military keep leverage, while energy-dependent countries such as South Korea face economic bleeding under what it called the “cost of alliance.” Claude warned again that South Korea’s most dangerous moment is when this neither-war-nor-peace condition becomes a “new normal.”
Expert: “It’s impossible to predict” — prepare for every scenario
The AI war game was launched because the real-world situation is hard to forecast. In a phone interview with the newspaper, In Nam-sik, a professor at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy, compared the U.S.-Iran standoff to “watching a soccer broadcast.” The sides may be passing the ball around the center circle, he said, but no one can predict when a sudden play will produce a shot.On Trump’s sudden ceasefire declaration, In said the constant shifts and lack of consistency “could itself be a negotiating strategy,” but added, “I don’t know what the real intention is.” Iran, he said, is also sending mixed messages. “Normally, messages should be consistent and war aims clear, but right now both sides keep going back and forth,” he said, adding that he doubts anyone can explain the situation precisely.
The current environment, he said, could swing quickly on a single decision by leaders — toward a breakthrough or toward disaster. Still, the article said one point is clear: as the AI warned, economic bleeding from an oil shock has already begun.
Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, warned that the crisis is “the biggest in history, more severe than the 1973 and 1979 oil shocks and the 2022 Ukraine war combined.” He said a closure of the Strait of Hormuz has halted 20% of global energy flows, and that restoring disrupted output of 13 million barrels a day would take more than two years.
The exercise sought to fill what it described as a gap in expert forecasting by using AI to map a “worst path.” The 59% stalemate estimate is not a fixed future. But the article said experts’ caution and the AI’s warning converge on one point: for South Korea, institutionalized uncertainty — neither war nor peace — could be more damaging than a full-scale war.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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