U.S. financial news outlet MarketWatch reported Monday that parts of the energy industry view Kazakhstan and Iraq as the most likely to follow the UAE. The reasoning is that both countries have room to raise crude output, giving them an incentive to chafe at OPEC production limits. Reuters, however, reported that Iraq’s government said it has no plan to leave OPEC.
Kazakhstan has been singled out as a country with growing dissatisfaction over OPEC+ production caps. MarketWatch said Kazakhstan, like the UAE, has long expressed frustration with its quota. Kazakhstan’s May production limit is about 1.6 million barrels a day, and its actual capacity is estimated to be slightly higher — meaning it does not have the same scale of spare capacity as the UAE.
The UAE’s gap is far larger. Under OPEC, its May output was capped at about 3.5 million barrels a day, but its production capacity is estimated at 4.7 million to 4.8 million barrels a day. The report cited long-running complaints about quotas, as well as regional leadership rivalry with Saudi Arabia, as factors discussed behind the UAE’s decision to leave.
Markets broadly see the UAE’s exit as a blow to OPEC but not one likely to trigger a rapid collapse. Analysts note Saudi Arabia still holds the largest spare capacity, limiting any near-term erosion of the group’s ability to influence prices. Some also argue the remaining producers could gain more internal influence after the UAE’s departure.
Still, concerns about longer-term instability remain. Rystad Energy said short-term effects could be limited due to potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and broader geopolitical uncertainty, but warned that a structurally weakened OPEC will face a heavier burden in managing supply and stabilizing oil prices going forward.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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