Reuters, citing U.S. government officials, reported April 28 local time that intelligence officials are reviewing the potential fallout if Trump declares victory in the roughly two-month war with Iran.
The report said the analysis, requested by senior administration officials, is part of broader scenario planning. Some officials and advisers are concerned the conflict could lead to a major Republican defeat in the midterm elections, and they want to understand the consequences if Trump pulls back from the war.
No specific decision has been made, but Trump could expand military operations again if needed. A rapid de-escalation could ease political pressure, officials said, but it could also allow Iran to rebuild nuclear and missile capabilities and expand its regional influence.
U.S. intelligence has conducted similar assessments before. After initial airstrikes in February, one assessment found that if Trump declares victory and reduces troop levels, Iran would be likely to treat it as a de facto victory. If Trump declares victory while keeping forces in place, it could be seen as a negotiating tactic, but would be unlikely to end the war, the assessment said.
The White House says it remains open to talks. Spokeswoman Anna Kelly said the United States is still negotiating with Iran and will not rush into a bad deal. She said the president will agree only to a deal that puts U.S. national security first and has made clear Iran must never obtain a nuclear weapon.
Public opinion in the United States has worsened, the report said. In a Reuters/Ipsos poll, 26% said the military operation was worth the cost, and 25% said it made the United States safer.
The prolonged war is also weighing on energy markets. The Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has blocked, is a key shipping route through which about 20% of the world’s oil cargo passes. Continued disruption has kept pressure on international crude prices and U.S. gasoline prices.
A diplomatic solution remains unclear. Trump signaled skepticism about progress by canceling a weekend trip to Pakistan by envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, the report said.
Military options are still being reviewed inside the administration, though one U.S. government official and another source said the most hard-line option, such as an invasion of the Iranian mainland, appears less feasible than it did several weeks ago.
Iran, meanwhile, is believed to be using a ceasefire period to repair military assets damaged in the initial airstrikes. Analysts said that if full-scale fighting resumes, the military costs could be higher than at the outset.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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