South Korea, which relies on imports for most of its energy, is among the countries most exposed to external shocks, analysts say. Experts warn the current turmoil is not a temporary price swing but a turning point in which supply-chain instability becomes structural, meaning similar shocks could recur whenever geopolitical tensions flare.
That has renewed calls to treat energy security as a top-tier economic strategy and to diversify supply while reshaping the power-generation structure through an “energy mix” that balances renewables, nuclear power and other sources to spread risk and maintain stable supply during crises.
At the “2026 Aju Economic Daily 2nd Energy Forum,” hosted by Aju Economic Daily on Tuesday at the Korea Press Center in central Seoul, Kim Hyeong-jun, a chair professor at KAIST’s Moon Soul Graduate School of Future Strategy and Department of AI Futures Studies, said climate change is “not simply an environmental issue but a complex system problem involving energy, water and the economy.” He added, “If we do not change the energy structure, the damage will grow.”
Kim said the economic gap widens sharply between limiting temperature rise to within 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels and allowing warming to intensify without action. If warming is left unchecked, he said, global damage could reach about $2,300 trillion (about 300 quadrillion won) by 2100, but managing warming at about 1.5 degrees could cut the damage roughly in half.
“An era is coming when carbon emissions will be tracked beyond the national level to the corporate level,” Kim said, adding that “a structure is forming in which the cost burden grows if emissions are not reduced.”
Citing the International Energy Agency, Kwak said global electricity demand is projected to rise from 28,200 terawatt-hours last year to 33,600 TWh by 2030 as the AI industry grows. Over the same period, power consumption by AI data centers is expected to roughly triple.
However, shortages in transmission lines, transformers and grid connections are emerging as major bottlenecks, he said. In Texas, he noted, applications waiting for data-center grid connections exceed 150 gigawatts — more than one-fifth of total U.S. peak load — underscoring the strain facing major economies.
South Korea faces similar pressures, Kwak said. With the expansion of semiconductors and AI, peak power demand is projected to rise about 28% by 2038, requiring an estimated additional 2.2 gigawatts of supply each year. Demand is concentrated in the Seoul metropolitan area while generation facilities are spread across other regions, worsening regional imbalances.
“Building transmission networks typically takes more than 10 years, while new demand such as data centers can surge within two to three years, making mismatches more likely,” Kwak said. He urged parallel mid- to long-term steps, including grid expansion, greater capacity to integrate renewable energy, adoption of virtual power lines (VPL), and development of a more distributed power system.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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