Tariff Refunds, USMCA Review Roil U.S. Auto Market; Hyundai’s Response in Focus

Hyundai Motor Group Chairman Chung Euisun signs at a Hyundai plant in the United States. [Photo=Hyundai]

A U.S. Supreme Court ruling has set tariff refund procedures in motion, signaling shifts in profit expectations for U.S. automakers. For foreign brands operating in the United States, uncertainty is growing as the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA, heads toward a scheduled review. Attention is also on how Hyundai Motor Group, which has been posting strong U.S. results, will respond.

Industry officials said April 30 that General Motors expects about $500 million (about 740 billion won) in tariff refunds for the first quarter following the Supreme Court’s decision that reciprocal tariffs were illegal.

In its 2026 first-quarter earnings report, GM raised its forecast for adjusted earnings before interest and taxes this year to $13.5 billion to $15.5 billion, from $13 billion to $15 billion.

The ruling found unlawful the broad tariffs President Donald Trump imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA. Ford is also reported to have reflected the impact of tariff refunds totaling about $1.3 billion paid over the past year.

Despite those moves by U.S. automakers, other foreign automakers are taking a cautious stance, with tariff-related risks seen widening.

Trump has added to uncertainty by raising the possibility of scrapping the USMCA or shifting to separate agreements with Canada and Mexico during the pact’s scheduled review in July.

Since the launch of the second Trump administration, vehicles produced in Mexico and Canada have faced a 25% tariff depending on the share of non-U.S. parts. If remaining tariff benefits are removed, companies operating locally would face an unavoidable hit. Hyundai, Toyota and Nissan have responded by considering pulling low-priced models.

Even with political uncertainty in the U.S. market, Hyundai Motor Group’s sales have remained strong. Hyundai and Kia sold 430,720 vehicles in the United States in the first quarter, up 2.6% from a year earlier. Over the same period, major rivals posted declines, including GM (-9.6%), Honda (-4.2%), Nissan (-8.3%), Toyota (-0.1%). The gains were driven by rising demand for eco-friendly models such as the Sonata Hybrid and higher sales of SUVs including the Tucson and Sportage.

Hyundai said it is adjusting its strategy to fit the changing environment. It plans to invest $26 billion in the United States through 2028 to sharply increase production of vehicles, including hybrids. A Hyundai official said, "(In the U.S. market) tariff factors and policy uncertainty are growing, so we are focusing on expanding local production rather than exports from Korea."

* This article has been translated by AI.

Oh Jooseok farbrother@ajunews.com