The won weakened against the U.S. dollar as international oil prices jumped on global supply-chain disruptions and expectations for U.S. rate cuts faded.
In Seoul trading on April 30, the won closed at 1,483.3 per dollar in onshore trading at 3:30 p.m., up 4.3 won from the previous session. The currency opened at 1,486.5, up 7.5 won, and briefly climbed to 1,488.0 soon after the market opened before paring gains later in the day. A day earlier, the won ended at 1,488.5, up 9.5 won from the prior onshore close, nearing the 1,490 level.
Since the outbreak of war in the Middle East, the strongest catalyst for the won’s decline has been oil. Volatility has increased as concerns grow that supply disruptions could be prolonged. Overnight, Brent crude briefly surged to $119.76 a barrel, the highest since June 2022, early in the Russia-Ukraine war. For energy-dependent South Korea, higher oil prices raise import costs and fuel worries about a weaker current account, adding pressure on the won.
Another key variable is the combination of Middle East risk and the Federal Reserve’s stance. After the Middle East war pushed the exchange rate above 1,500 last month, markets appeared to gradually absorb the shock. But the Fed has now formally warned of inflation risks tied to the conflict, reinforcing investor concerns.
In its latest Federal Open Market Committee statement, the Fed said the Middle East situation is a factor that is increasing inflation concerns and adding to high uncertainty around the economic outlook.
With the Fed holding rates, expectations for a rate cut this year have effectively faded. Although the policy rate was left unchanged, the decision was viewed as a hawkish hold after three officials issued a dissenting view seen as aimed at blocking expectations for future cuts.
According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, interest-rate futures markets priced in about a 12% chance that the Fed will raise rates by at least 0.25 percentage point by December. A day earlier, that probability was 0%. The shift has supported demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset.
The foreign exchange market is expected to remain volatile as it reacts to external factors. With talk of renewed military clashes in the Middle East, oil prices have risen again. On April 30 (Korea time), Brent futures for June delivery on London’s ICE Futures Exchange briefly topped $120 a barrel.
Still, some expect pressure on the won to ease if the Bank of Korea raises rates later this year. Moon Da-un, a researcher at Korea Investment & Securities, said higher-than-expected domestic growth and interest rates would increase downward pressure on the exchange rate. He forecast the central bank will raise its policy rate by 0.25 percentage point each in August and November, citing solid growth and war-driven inflation pressure.
Moon added that the Korea-U.S. policy rate gap would narrow to minus 0.75 percentage point from minus 1.25 percentage points, slowing overseas investment that had been rising in search of higher expected returns and leading to a more gradual accumulation of net external financial assets than previously expected.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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