As the war sparked by a surprise U.S.-Israeli strike on Iran enters its third month, South Korean industry is bracing for a delayed surge in energy costs that has so far been held back by inventories and price controls. With companies already facing supply-chain uncertainty, the coming pass-through could add a major new burden.
According to industry officials on Tuesday, the Bank of Korea’s data show Dubai crude averaged $61.97 a barrel in January, then more than doubled to $128.52 in March after the war began on Feb. 28. In early May, it has been hovering in the $104 range.
Much of the petroleum products now being sold were imported 2 to 4 months ago at an average in the mid-$60s, and electricity rates have not fully reflected the spike because of a cap in the fuel-cost adjustment mechanism. Dubai crude typically feeds into the system marginal price (SMP) for wholesale power with a 4- to 5-month lag, meaning March’s surge is likely to affect power bills directly or indirectly in July and August, when cooling demand peaks.
An analysis by the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade found that a 10% rise in oil prices increases average manufacturing production costs by 0.71%. The biggest hits fall on petroleum products (6.30%), chemical products (1.59%) and rubber and plastics (0.46%). With Dubai crude jumping 87.9% in March alone, the on-the-ground impact could be larger than the headline figures suggest.
The path out remains unclear. With U.S.-Iran talks dragging on, the United States has also moved to block all vessels traveling to and from Iran, in what the article described as a “reverse blockade.” Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens depending on negotiations, it would take six weeks to restore 80% of Gulf oilfield output to normal. Factoring in additional lags from shipping, refining and inventory drawdowns, the cost pressure from high oil prices is likely to persist through the third quarter.
Major global investment banks have raised their alerts. Citigroup said Brent could rise above $150 a barrel if supply disruptions continue through June. With Dubai crude already well above $84 a barrel — the refining industry’s break-even level — domestic refiners are expected to enter loss territory starting about two months from now as low-cost inventories run out. Experts warned that today’s surface-level price stability could amplify the shock later.
Kim Kwang-seok, head of economic research at the Korea Economic and Industrial Research Institute, said that while energy prices typically rise first at the start of a war, increases later spread to naphtha, ethylene, fertilizer and urea, as well as consumer goods, food and services. If the Middle East war does not end within this month and becomes prolonged, he said, inflation is likely to shift from a concern to a reality.
* This article has been translated by AI.
Copyright ⓒ Aju Press All rights reserved.