◆Ajou Economy top stories
▷From 2,500 to 7,400: KOSPI enters a “new normal” era
-According to the Korea Exchange on the 6th, the KOSPI closed at 7,384.56, up 447.57 points, or 6.45%, from the previous session. With the KOSPI at 2,573.80 on May 7 last year, the index is up about 187% in a year.
-The rally was led by semiconductors. Samsung Electronics closed at 266,000 won, up 33,500 won, or 14.41%, from the previous session. Its market capitalization reached about 1,555 trillion won, entering the “$1 trillion market-cap club” for the first time.
-As of the close, total KOSPI market capitalization was 6,058 trillion won, up about 3,951 trillion won from 2,107 trillion won a year earlier. The combined market cap of Samsung Electronics (including preferred shares) and SK hynix was about 2,848 trillion won, roughly 47% of the total.
-Investors said the move is being read not as a liquidity-driven surge but as a structural rerating, with a semiconductor-led shift in profit dynamics pushing the market into a phase where the KOSPI’s “baseline itself is changing.”
-Some analysts said there may be more upside. Research chiefs at seven major securities firms forecast the KOSPI could reach as high as 9,000 in the second half of this year.
◆Key report
▷War and geoeconomic fragmentation: A new order and investing [Samsung Securities]
-The report said major wars have become more frequent as geopolitical realignment has accelerated in the 2020s, highlighting a “geo-economics” framework in which economic, financial and technological tools are used strategically.
-It said the shift is crystallizing into three trends: a multi-price economy, a move toward a multi-currency system, and an “energy-transition Cold War,” reflecting a broader move from a unipolar to a multipolar order.
-The report said the fragmentation is driving a macro “regime change,” with the 2010s “3L” era of low growth, low inflation and low rates giving way in the 2020s to “3M” — moderate growth, moderate inflation and moderate rates — along with high volatility.
-It also cited four fiscal pressures — security, industrial policy, climate and aging — and said a mix of “financial repression plus monetary-fiscal policy” is becoming mainstream, with reshoring and revived industrial policy likely to bring large-scale state capital into strategic industries.
-The report said investors need to “relearn” old formulas, recommending a shift from a 60/40 stock-bond portfolio to 50/30/20 across stocks, bonds and alternatives, and broader regional diversification beyond a U.S.-heavy allocation to other advanced markets and emerging markets including China.
-It said equities should focus on selective opportunities within the U.S. and “China+1” beneficiary countries; bonds on a duration barbell and more local-currency emerging-market debt; and commodities on copper, uranium and silver tied to a “transition minerals supercycle,” along with continued structural revaluation of gold.
◆Major disclosures after the close (6th)
▷Hanul&Jeju: 10 billion won third-party allocated rights offering
▷Kurly: 33 billion won capital increase with Naver; Naver to secure a 6.2% stake
▷Yuhan: 56 billion won contract to supply raw materials for a cardiomyopathy treatment
▷Korea Zinc: Q1 operating profit 746.1 billion won, up 175.2% from a year earlier
▷Kakao Pay: Q1 operating profit 32.2 billion won, up 631%
◆Fund flows (as of the 4th, excluding ETFs)
▷Domestic equity funds: -25 billion won
▷Overseas equity funds: -25.7 billion won
◆Key events today (7th)
▷Eurozone: Retail sales (March)
▷U.S.: Q1 unit labor costs, productivity; construction spending (March)
* This article has been translated by AI.
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