Jeonse listings for Seoul apartments have fallen by nearly 40% over the past year, with outer districts seeing the steepest declines, according to market data. Analysts said further tightening of rules targeting nonresident owners of a single home could prompt more landlords to move in or pull rentals from the market, worsening housing insecurity for lower-income tenants.
As of May 7, the real estate big-data platform Asil counted 16,052 jeonse listings in Seoul, down 38.9% from 26,247 on May 6 last year.
The drop was far sharper on the city’s outskirts. Jungnang-gu fell to 67 listings from 407, an 83.6% plunge, the largest decline among districts. Seongbuk-gu dropped 82.6% to 179 from 1,025. Gwanak-gu fell 80.3% to 100 from 507, and Nowon-gu fell 80.0% to 210 from 1,046.
Guro-gu (498 to 118, down 76.4%), Geumcheon-gu (249 to 63, down 74.7%) and Gangbuk-gu (228 to 58, down 74.6%) also posted declines of more than 70%.
By contrast, Seoul’s three affluent southern districts recorded declines in the teens. Songpa-gu fell 11.4% to 1,781 from 2,010, the smallest drop in Seoul. Seocho-gu fell 14.9% to 4,886 from 5,741, and Gangnam-gu fell 19.4% to 4,192 from 5,196.
The pullback has been linked to the government’s Oct. 15 measures last year, which expanded land-transaction permit zones across Seoul and parts of the greater capital area and tightened owner-occupancy requirements and lending limits. Some investment money also shifted to less-regulated areas or to regions outside the capital, the report said.
According to the Korea Real Estate Board, the share of Seoul apartment purchases by nonlocal buyers averaged 18.81% over the four months from November, immediately after the Oct. 15 measures, through February, the lowest level in about nine years. The report cited tougher conditions for so-called gap investment, along with the end of a temporary suspension of heavier capital gains taxes for multi-home owners and limits on loan extensions, as additional factors reducing rental supply.
Pressure on jeonse prices is rising. Seoul Housing Information Plaza data showed Gangbuk-gu had the highest jeonse-to-price ratio at 67.9%, followed by Jungnang-gu at 67.5%, Gwanak-gu at 66.3%, and Eunpyeong-gu and Geumcheon-gu at 66.1% each. The ratio compares jeonse deposits with sale prices; it is often viewed as a threshold that can start to push up home prices when it exceeds 60%.
With the government signaling tougher rules for nonresident one-home owners and additional lending curbs, the market is increasingly concerned that instability in the jeonse market could outweigh protections for end users. If pressure rises on nonresident owners who keep homes with jeonse tenants, landlords may be more likely to switch to living in the home or withdraw it from the rental market.
Park Won-gap, senior real estate specialist at KB Kookmin Bank, said outer districts such as Jungnang-gu and Geumcheon-gu are already above 60%. “We need to watch whether the price stimulus that began in mid- to low-priced apartments spreads to Seoul’s high-priced areas,” he said. Park added that higher holding taxes could stabilize the sales market, but the burden could be passed on to tenants through higher rents. “Policies are needed to guide a soft landing so it does not spill over into housing insecurity for low-income households without homes,” he said.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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