The global stock market in spring 2026 is once again revolving around semiconductors. The tickers on the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq are consistently glowing red, with investors focused on a single term: artificial intelligence (AI).
The recent surge in semiconductor stocks on the U.S. market is not merely a rise in tech shares; it signals that the new industrial revolution driven by AI is shaking financial markets, industrial structures, national strategies, and geopolitics simultaneously.
Micron's stock jumped 15% in a single day, while AMD and Intel saw increases of nearly 10-15%. This is beyond just a positive market reaction; the market is beginning to view semiconductors as the most critical strategic asset since oil.
The atmosphere in the memory semiconductor market has changed dramatically from the past. Once considered a 'chicken game industry,' where companies like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix would increase supply, causing prices to plummet, the industry has now transformed. Whenever the global economy wobbled, DRAM prices would crash, and semiconductor companies' profits would fluctuate wildly.
However, with the advent of the AI era, the market is viewing the memory industry from an entirely different perspective.
Today, what AI data centers require is not just simple storage but ultra-fast memory capable of processing trillions of operations per second. The key component is High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), which acts as the brain of AI servers when combined with NVIDIA GPUs. If the GPU is the engine, HBM is akin to the blood vessels supplying it with oxygen.
As AI models grow larger, the demand for HBM skyrockets. Companies like OpenAI, Google, Meta, Amazon, xAI, and major Chinese tech firms are all competing in the AI data center race, leading to a near depletion of global HBM supply.
SK Hynix has emerged as a key player in NVIDIA's supply chain, earning recognition as one of the biggest beneficiaries of the AI era due to its strong early-mover advantage in the HBM market. Samsung Electronics is also making astronomical investments to secure competitiveness in next-generation HBM4 and advanced packaging.
Currently, the global semiconductor industry has shifted from mere corporate competition to a national all-out war.
The United States is expanding its advanced semiconductor production base through the CHIPS Act, while China is committed to achieving semiconductor self-sufficiency as a matter of national destiny. Japan is collaborating with TSMC on a semiconductor revival project centered in Kyushu, and countries in India and the Middle East are also competing to attract AI data centers and advanced chip production.
Semiconductors are no longer just electronic components; they are military power, a financial system, and a core asset for national security.
In fact, most of the key weapons in modern warfare operate on semiconductors. Drones, missiles, satellites, AI reconnaissance systems, autonomous weapons, and cyber warfare systems all require advanced chips to function. This is why the U.S. is tightening export controls on advanced GPUs to China; AI semiconductors are at the heart of future hegemony. The structural characteristics of the AI industry are further stimulating a semiconductor supercycle.
In the past, during the internet era, even as the number of servers increased, the growth rate slowed beyond a certain point. However, AI is different. As AI models evolve, they require more data and greater processing power. The number of GPUs needed to train a single large-scale language model like GPT has surpassed that of past supercomputers.
Consequently, Wall Street now views NVIDIA not merely as a semiconductor company but as the “oil supplier of the AI era.” GPUs have become the new crude oil, and HBM serves as the pipeline that moves this oil. The issue is that this transformation is dramatically stimulating the market's imagination.
Recently, the atmosphere on Wall Street resembles the gold rush of the 19th century. A sentiment has emerged that “any AI-related company will rise.” Companies involved in AI server equipment, power supply, and cooling solutions are all experiencing surges. The market for liquid cooling systems and power infrastructure for data centers is also expanding rapidly.
In Texas and Arizona, as well as in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, massive AI data center construction projects are being announced. Some projects are projected to require power equivalent to that of a nuclear power plant. This reveals that AI is not just a software industry but a massive energy-consuming sector.
Particularly, the capital expenditures (CAPEX) of major U.S. tech firms have reached historic levels. Annual AI-related investments by Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Google exceed the budgets of many countries. These companies are entering long-term supply contracts and pre-order agreements to avoid falling behind in the semiconductor race.
Micron's recent surge is also part of this trend. The market is not merely reacting to “strong earnings” but is focusing on the “structural long-term potential for memory shortages.” Unlike past cycles that saw brief surges lasting 1-2 years, the current cycle is expected to continue for several years alongside the expansion of AI infrastructure.
However, the market's enthusiasm also signals potential risks. A significant portion of the S&P 500's rise is concentrated in a handful of tech stocks, which is crucial to note. The market is not rising healthily; rather, a few AI stocks are lifting the index. This suggests that the strength of the rally may be weaker than anticipated.
Moreover, the recent surge in call option purchases by retail investors is reminiscent of patterns seen during past bubbles. While the belief that AI will transform human civilization may be valid, financial markets have historically overreacted by pricing in the future too aggressively.
During the late 1990s internet bubble, the assertion that “the internet will change the world” was indeed true. The internet did transform the world. However, many internet companies' stock prices soared into a fantasy that exceeded reality, ultimately leading to a bubble burst.
Today's AI market carries similar risks. The energy issue is a critical variable. AI data centers consume enormous amounts of power. This is why countries worldwide are discussing the restart of nuclear power plants and the expansion of power grids. As the AI industry grows, issues surrounding electricity, gas, and oil will again become significant.
That is why Wall Street is currently paying attention to the Strait of Hormuz. If geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalate and oil prices surge, the cost structure of the AI industry could also be disrupted. While the industry is currently buffered by inventories and reserves, a long-term instability in energy supply chains could shock the AI rally. Ultimately, the global semiconductor market stands at the intersection of technology, finance, geopolitics, energy, and military strategy.
In this context, investment sages like Sir John Templeton would caution against the crowd's enthusiasm. He famously said, “The best returns come when people are most pessimistic.” Conversely, when everyone is optimistic, he advised to be wary. Templeton specifically warned that the phrase “this time is different” is often used when people are at their most vulnerable.
Currently, Wall Street is essentially shouting “this time is different” regarding AI. Templeton would likely acknowledge the long-term potential of the AI revolution but would also critically observe the market's excessive greed and crowd psychology.
Warren Buffett would pose a slightly different question: “Will that company still be making money in ten years?” Buffett focuses on cash flow, market dominance, and management's capital allocation abilities rather than the technology itself. This is why he has been cautious about tech investments but has made long-term investments in Apple, recognizing its strong consumer ecosystem and brand dominance.
Buffett also remarked, “When the tide goes out, you can see who has been swimming naked.” In times of abundant liquidity and a strong AI boom, anyone can appear to be a genius. However, when interest rates fluctuate, energy prices soar, and economic slowdowns occur, the differences between genuinely competitive companies and those that are merely bubbles become apparent.
Historically, all technological revolutions have followed similar patterns. The railroad revolution, the automobile revolution, and the internet revolution all saw massive investment booms initially, but only a few companies emerged as ultimate winners, while the rest disappeared. Ultimately, the crucial question is not “Will AI change the world?” but rather “Who will survive through that change?”
In this regard, Eastern philosophy offers remarkable insights. Laozi stated in the Tao Te Ching, “When filled to the brim, it tips over; when too sharp, it cannot last.” He also warned, “A blade that is too sharp cannot be preserved for long.” The market has always collapsed when it becomes excessive. Unrestrained human desire sows the seeds of its own destruction.
Conversely, the I Ching speaks of the principles of change: “When the end is reached, change occurs; when change occurs, there is communication; when there is communication, there is longevity.” This means that when one reaches a dead end, change must happen, and through change, paths open, leading to longevity.
Today, the global economy stands on the threshold of that change. AI holds the potential to revolutionize human productivity. However, it simultaneously nurtures significant shadows of energy shortages, geopolitics, financial bubbles, and hegemonic competition. The AI hegemony war between the U.S. and China is not merely an industrial competition; it is a new cold war encompassing semiconductors, energy, data, military power, and financial systems.
In this process, South Korea's position is far from insignificant. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are now at the core of the global AI supply chain. As the world races toward AI, the strategic value of South Korean semiconductors is likely to increase. However, South Korea must also remain vigilant. If the illusion of a semiconductor supercycle leads to an over-concentration of all industrial structures solely on AI and semiconductors, the risks will grow. Without securing diversity in the industrial ecosystem, energy security, and financial stability, South Korea will inevitably be shaken by external shocks.
Ultimately, the market is a mirror of human civilization. Greed and fear, innovation and illusion, technology and desire all intertwine. The current semiconductor rally is undoubtedly a signal of changing times. However, it is also a dangerous heat generated by human crowd psychology.
John Templeton would likely say, “Be calm when the crowd is excited.” Warren Buffett would probably add, “Even good companies become bad investments if bought too expensively.” And the ancient texts of the East quietly whisper, “Heaven and earth are not in a hurry, yet they accomplish everything.”
The era of AI and semiconductors is not over. In fact, it is likely just beginning. However, the greater the era, the deeper the need for restraint and insight. True masters do not lose their center even amid excitement. This is the harsh truth that Wall Street's history has repeatedly proven.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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