The global stock market in spring 2026 is once again centered around semiconductors. The tickers on the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq are consistently in the red, with investors focusing on a single term: artificial intelligence (AI).
The recent surge in semiconductor stocks on the U.S. market is not merely a reaction to positive news; it signals that the new industrial revolution driven by AI is shaking financial markets, industrial structures, national strategies, and geopolitics simultaneously.
Micron's stock soared 15% in a single day, while AMD and Intel saw increases of nearly 10-15%. The market is beginning to view semiconductors as the most critical strategic asset since oil.
Particularly, the atmosphere in the memory semiconductor market has changed dramatically. Once considered a 'chicken game industry,' where companies like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix would increase supply, leading to price crashes, the memory sector is now viewed through a completely different lens in the AI era.
AI data centers require not just simple storage but ultra-fast memory capable of processing trillions of operations per second. The key component is High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), which acts as the brain of AI servers when combined with NVIDIA GPUs. If the GPU is the engine, HBM serves as the blood and oxygen supply.
As AI models grow larger, demand for HBM is skyrocketing. Companies like OpenAI, Google, Meta, Amazon, xAI, and major Chinese tech firms are all competing in the AI data center race, leading to a near depletion of global HBM supply.
SK Hynix has emerged as a key player in NVIDIA's supply chain, earning recognition as one of the biggest beneficiaries of the AI era due to its early entry into the HBM market. Samsung Electronics is also making astronomical investments to secure competitiveness in next-generation HBM4 and advanced packaging.
The global semiconductor industry has transformed from mere corporate competition into a national all-out war.
The United States is expanding its advanced semiconductor production base through the CHIPS Act, while China is striving for semiconductor independence as a matter of national survival. Japan is collaborating with TSMC on a semiconductor revival project centered in Kyushu, and countries in India and the Middle East are also entering the competition for AI data centers and advanced chips.
Semiconductors are no longer just electronic components; they are military power, a financial system, and a core asset for national security.
Most modern weapons operate on semiconductors. Drones, missiles, satellites, AI reconnaissance systems, autonomous weapons, and cyber warfare systems all require advanced chips to function. The U.S. has tightened export controls on advanced GPUs to China for this very reason, as AI semiconductors are at the heart of future hegemony. The structural characteristics of the AI industry are further stimulating a semiconductor supercycle.
In the past, even as the number of servers increased during the internet era, growth rates slowed beyond a certain point. However, AI is different. As AI models evolve, they require more data and greater computational power. The number of GPUs needed to train a single large-scale language model like GPT has surpassed that of past supercomputers.
Wall Street now views NVIDIA not merely as a semiconductor company but as the “oil supplier of the AI era.” GPUs have become the new crude oil, and HBM is the pipeline that transports it. The challenge is that these changes are dramatically stimulating market imagination.
Recently, the mood on Wall Street resembles the gold rush of the 19th century. The belief that “any AI-related company will rise” is spreading. Companies involved in AI server equipment, power supply, and cooling solutions are all experiencing surges. The market for liquid cooling systems and power infrastructure for data centers is also rapidly expanding.
In Texas and Arizona, as well as in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, massive AI data center construction projects are being announced. Some projects are estimated to require power equivalent to that of a nuclear power plant. This reveals that AI is not just a software industry but a massive energy-consuming sector.
Notably, the capital expenditures (CAPEX) of major U.S. tech firms have reached historic levels. Annual AI-related investments by Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Google exceed the budgets of many countries. These companies are entering long-term supply and pre-order contracts to ensure they do not fall behind in the semiconductor race.
Micron's recent surge is also a reflection of this trend. The market is not merely reacting to “good performance” but is focusing on the potential for a structural long-term memory shortage. Unlike past cycles that saw brief surges lasting one to two years, there is now a belief that growth will continue for several years alongside the expansion of AI infrastructure.
However, the market's enthusiasm also signals potential risks. A significant portion of the recent S&P 500 gains is concentrated in a small number of tech stocks, which is crucial to note. The market is not rising healthily; rather, a few AI stocks are driving the index up, indicating that the strength of the rally may be weaker than anticipated.
Particularly, the recent surge in call option purchases by individual investors is reminiscent of patterns seen during past bubbles. While the belief that AI will change human civilization may be valid, financial markets have historically overreacted to future expectations.
During the late 1990s internet bubble, the assertion that “the internet will change the world” was true. Indeed, the internet did transform the globe. However, many internet company stocks soared in a fantasy that exceeded reality, ultimately leading to a bubble burst.
The current AI market carries similar risks. Energy issues are a critical variable. AI data centers consume enormous amounts of power, which is why countries are discussing the reactivation of nuclear power plants and the expansion of power grids. As the AI industry grows, electricity, gas, and oil concerns will become increasingly significant.
This is why Wall Street is now paying attention to the Strait of Hormuz. If geopolitical instability in the Middle East leads to a spike in oil prices, the cost structure of the AI industry could also be disrupted. While current inventories and strategic reserves may hold up, long-term instability in energy supply chains could impact the AI rally as well. Ultimately, the global semiconductor market stands at the intersection of technology, finance, geopolitics, energy, and military strategy during a significant civilizational transition.
In this context, investment legends like Sir John Templeton would caution against the crowd's enthusiasm. He famously said, “The best returns come at the most pessimistic moments.” Conversely, when everyone is caught up in optimism, he advised skepticism. Templeton warned that the phrase “this time is different” is often used when people are most at risk.
Currently, Wall Street is effectively shouting “this time is different” regarding AI. If Templeton were here, he would likely acknowledge the long-term potential of the AI revolution while critically observing the market's excessive greed and crowd psychology.
Warren Buffett would pose a slightly different question: “Can that company still make money ten years from now?” Buffett focuses on cash flow, market dominance, and management's capital allocation skills rather than technology itself. He has been cautious about tech investments but has made long-term commitments to Apple because he sees it as more than just a tech company; he recognizes its strong consumer ecosystem and brand dominance.
Buffett also noted, “When the tide goes out, you see who has been swimming naked.” In times of excess liquidity and strong AI enthusiasm, anyone can appear to be a genius. However, when interest rates fluctuate, energy prices surge, and economic slowdowns occur, the differences between truly competitive companies and those that are merely bubbles become apparent.
Historically, all technological revolutions have followed similar patterns. The railroad revolution, the automobile revolution, and the internet revolution all saw massive investment booms initially, but only a handful of companies emerged victorious, while the rest faded away. Ultimately, the question is not whether “AI will change the world,” but rather “who will survive through that change.”
Eastern classics offer remarkable insights. Laozi stated in the Dao De Jing, “When full, it tips; when sharp, it cannot last.” Another passage warns, “An excessively sharp sword cannot be preserved for long.” The market has always collapsed when it becomes too inflated. Unrestrained human desire sows the seeds of its own destruction.
Conversely, the I Ching speaks of the principles of change: “When the end is reached, change occurs; with change, there is communication; with communication, there is longevity.” This means that when one reaches a dead end, change happens, and through change, paths open, allowing for longevity.
Today, the global economy stands on the threshold of change. AI has the potential to revolutionize human productivity. However, it also casts a massive shadow of energy shortages, geopolitics, financial bubbles, and hegemonic competition. The AI power struggle between the U.S. and China is not merely an industrial competition; it represents a new Cold War intertwined with semiconductors, energy, data, military power, and financial systems.
In this process, South Korea's position is far from insignificant. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are at the core of the global AI supply chain. As the world races toward AI, the strategic value of South Korean semiconductors is likely to increase. However, South Korea must also remain vigilant. If the illusion of a semiconductor supercycle leads to an over-concentration of all industrial structures solely on AI and semiconductors, the risks will grow. Without securing diversity in the industrial ecosystem, energy security, and financial stability, South Korea will inevitably be vulnerable to external shocks.
Ultimately, the market is a mirror of human civilization. Greed and fear, innovation and illusion, technology and desire all intertwine. The current semiconductor rally is undoubtedly a signal of changing times. However, it is also a dangerous heat generated by human crowd psychology.
John Templeton would likely say, “Be calm when the crowd is enthusiastic.” Warren Buffett might add, “Even good companies become bad investments if bought at too high a price.” And the ancient Eastern texts quietly whisper, “Heaven and earth are not in a hurry, yet they accomplish everything.”
The era of AI and semiconductors is not over; in fact, it is likely just beginning. However, the greater the era, the deeper the need for restraint and insight. True masters do not lose their center even amid enthusiasm. This is the harsh truth repeatedly proven by the history of Wall Street.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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