South Korea's Renewable Energy Goals Face Challenges Amid Infrastructure Concerns

South Korea's renewable energy transition policy has faced setbacks over the past two decades, marked by unmet targets, shifts in policy direction, and insufficient investment in the power grid, according to a national research institute. Concerns have been raised that the government's goal of achieving 100 gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy capacity by 2030 may be unrealistic without concurrent improvements in infrastructure and regulatory frameworks.

On May 11, the National Assembly Future Research Institute released a report titled "Evaluation of Domestic Renewable Energy-Centric Energy Transition Policy and Recommendations for Basic Planning."

The institute noted that renewable energy has evolved from a supplementary power source to a critical infrastructure influencing energy security and industrial competitiveness worldwide. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), renewable energy is expected to account for 36% of global power generation this year, surpassing coal's share of 32% for the first time.

The European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and the increasing participation of global companies in the RE100 initiative (committing to 100% renewable energy) have made the ability to procure renewable energy a key factor in export competitiveness.

The South Korean government has also positioned renewable energy as a core national policy objective, promoting "industry growth-oriented carbon neutrality" and aiming to establish 100 GW of renewable energy capacity and an energy highway by 2030.

However, fears persist that past policy inconsistencies may recur. Since 2001, most basic plans for renewable energy have failed to meet their targets, and policy directions have shifted dramatically with each change in administration, leading to increased market uncertainty.

Since the inauguration of President Yoon Suk Yeol, the previous nuclear phase-out policy has been abandoned, and the energy mix has shifted to prioritize nuclear power. The 10th Basic Plan for Power Supply and Demand has reduced the target for renewable energy's share of generation from 30.2% to 21.6%, while increasing the nuclear share to 32.4%.

As a result of these policy shifts, the expansion of renewable energy in South Korea remains limited. The share of renewable energy generation increased from 4.8% in 2016 to 10.5% in 2024, yet it still ranks among the lowest in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), significantly trailing the global average of approximately 30%.

The concentration of renewable energy facilities in regions like Honam and Jeju has created a structural mismatch with the power demand centered in the metropolitan area. The lack of transmission network expansion has exacerbated issues related to grid connection delays and output control.

Jeong Hoon, a researcher at the National Assembly Future Research Institute, stated, "Past basic plans have been implemented with a top-down approach that sets targets based on political goals without analyzing technical and economic potential." He noted that the shifting metrics for generation share, primary energy share, and final energy share have made it difficult to continuously compare and verify policy outcomes.

He further emphasized that achieving the 2030 goal of 100 GW of renewable energy capacity will require the installation of 10 to 12 GW of new capacity annually starting in 2026, while the current annual installation rate is only about 4 GW.

Therefore, the forthcoming "First Basic Plan for Renewable Energy Technology Development, Utilization, and Dissemination" should include not only simple installation targets but also plans for the power grid and system infrastructure. Jeong stressed the need for strategies that reflect regional grid conditions and plans for securing flexible resources such as energy storage systems (ESS), pumped storage, and virtual power plants (VPP).

Industry experts have also pointed out that merely increasing the pace of renewable energy expansion is insufficient. An anonymous industry source warned, "If we only expand capacity without restructuring the electricity market and investing in the transmission network, we are likely to face repeated issues with output control and connection delays," urging that renewable energy expansion policies and grid investment plans must be pursued in tandem.