SEOUL, May 11 (AJP) - The bias toward Wall Street stocks among South Korean investors has eased, but not nearly enough to offset foreign divestment from Korean equities — a gap that helps explain the won’s stubborn weakness.
According to data released by the Bank of Korea (BOK) last Friday, outbound stock investment by residents rose by $4 billion in March, slowing sharply from $13.46 billion in January and $8.64 billion in February.
The central bank said a strong dollar and risk aversion likely cooled the overseas buying spree.
The U.S. dollar climbed as high as 1,530 won after the outbreak of war in Iran in late February and averaged around 1,490 won in the postwar period.
“The rise in the exchange rate weakened the incentive for new outbound investment, and investor caution grew as volatility in the U.S. stock market expanded,” Kim Young-hwan, director of the BOK’s Economic Statistics Department 1, said during a press briefing Friday.
But while the pace of outbound investment slowed, domestic investment shrank even more sharply. In March, foreign investors posted a net outflow of $34.4 billion from the Korean market, nearly triple the $11.9 billion outflow in February.
The BOK said a global risk-off shift triggered by geopolitical threats, combined with Korea’s “K-shaped” market structure — where nearly half of total market capitalization is concentrated in Samsung Electronics and SK hynix — amplified volatility in Korean equities.
The fact that Korean investors continued to buy foreign stocks even amid deepening risk aversion points to their entrenched confidence in overseas markets.
A recent study by the Korea Capital Market Institute (KCMI) found that investors in their 20s and 30s, as well as high-net-worth individuals who primarily invest in overseas exchange-traded products, tend to hold stocks much longer than domestic market investors.
KCMI said that if the turnover rate of overseas investors is assumed at around 68 — calculated as shares traded divided by listed shares, multiplied by 100 — the combined turnover rate for domestic and overseas markets is roughly twice that level or higher. That suggests trading frequency is far higher in the domestic market, represented by the benchmark KOSPI and tech-heavy KOSDAQ.
The result has been greater volatility in the Korean stock market and deeper distrust among long-term investors. Based on closing prices from Jan. 2 to May 11, the KOSPI’s average daily fluctuation was about 2.3 percent, far higher than the Nasdaq’s 1.6 percent, the S&P 500’s 1.1 percent and the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s 0.9 percent.
In an “Issue Note” published last week, the BOK also said domestic stock investors tend to treat rallies in the Korean market as short-term valuation gains rather than opportunities for long-term investment. High volatility, the report said, has eroded investor confidence and discouraged patient capital.
As overseas preference and foreign capital outflows overlap, the won has struggled to recover.
On April 30, when the Bank of Japan intervened to strengthen the yen from 160 to 155 per dollar and the dollar index fell to 98, the Korean won still weakened by 4.3 won to close at 1,476.1 per dollar. Despite reduced concerns over the unwinding of the yen-carry trade, the won market swung sharply as foreign investors sold more than 1 trillion won ($679.35 million) worth of shares on the KOSPI alone.
Even on Monday, when the KOSPI surged 4.3 percent to a record high of 7,822.24, the won weakened by 0.7 won to close at 1,472.4 per dollar. The decline reflected another heavy outflow from won-denominated assets, as foreign investors dumped 3.48 trillion won worth of Korean stocks.
“As excessive trading in the domestic securities market has hindered investment performance, the perception of overseas markets — especially the U.S. — as long-term investment destinations remains strong,” said Kim Min-ki, a researcher at KCMI.
He warned that won weakness will persist unless Korea addresses its chronic problems of market volatility and excessive concentration.
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