Earlier this month, Yasutoshi Nishimura, head of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's election strategy, visited Beijing. This marked the first trip to China by a senior member of the ruling party since the Takaiichi administration took office, but he did not meet with any high-ranking Chinese officials. Despite traveling to Beijing, Japan was unable to find any clues for dialogue. While Japan seeks a way out, China sees no reason to rush, reflecting the current state of Japan-China relations.
Currently, China has little motivation to expedite improvements in relations with Japan. The country faces a series of significant domestic political events. In November, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit will be held in Shenzhen, followed by the once-every-five-years party congress scheduled for next autumn. Notably, the party congress is a critical stage for the top leadership, including President Xi Jinping.
The international environment is also favorable for China. Last month, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez visited Beijing and met with Xi, and U.S. President Donald Trump is set to visit China from May 13 to 15. Leaders from major European countries, including the UK and France, have also made their way to China. Observing the influx of foreign leaders, a senior official from Japan's Foreign Ministry remarked, "There is no visible motivation for China to reach out to Japan first."
Japan's situation is equally complex. As China has criticized and taken countermeasures against Prime Minister Takaiichi, domestic backlash has intensified. The Nikkei newspaper analyzed that this reaction contributed to the Liberal Democratic Party's significant victory in the recent elections. Instead of weakening the Takaiichi administration, China's pressure has provided justification for a hardline stance, leaving the Prime Minister in a position where he cannot retract his statements.
So, who should take the initiative? In the past, parliamentary diplomacy and party channels played that role. In 2015, then-LDP Secretary-General Toshihiro Nikai led a delegation of about 3,000 Japanese business leaders to Beijing to deliver a letter from then-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to Xi. The Komeito party, as a coalition partner, also regularly sent delegations to engage with Chinese leadership. Even when official government channels were blocked, parliamentary channels remained active.
However, those channels have now dried up. Makoto Kawashima, a professor at the University of Tokyo, stated that the Komeito party's departure from the coalition has left a significant void in Japan-China relations. The internal situation within the LDP is not much different. Hiroshi Moriya, the former chairman of the Japan-China Friendship Parliamentary Alliance, is distanced from Prime Minister Takaiichi, and the parliamentary alliance did not organize a delegation to visit China during the recent holiday period. One member of the alliance noted, "Parliamentary diplomacy cannot move forward unless the Takaiichi administration first presents a direction for dialogue."
Nevertheless, there are still official platforms where both countries can meet. The APEC Trade Ministers' Meeting in Suzhou later this month, a delegation from the Japan External Trade Organization visiting China in June, and the APEC summit in Shenzhen in November all present opportunities for dialogue. Ultimately, the key to improving relations will lie in these events. Twelve years ago, at the 2014 APEC summit in Beijing, it was widely believed that a meeting between the two leaders would be difficult until spring of that year. However, after behind-the-scenes negotiations began in the summer, a meeting between then-Prime Minister Abe and Xi was successfully arranged. For Xi, the Shenzhen APEC summit is also an important diplomatic stage ahead of next year's party congress. Regardless of the relationship with Japan, it would be difficult to leave a meeting with Prime Minister Takaiichi to end in a cold atmosphere.
Now, six months after Prime Minister Takaiichi's statements, Xi has not extended a hand, and Takaiichi cannot retract his remarks. The channels for parliamentary diplomacy have effectively been severed. In six months, at the Shenzhen APEC summit, the two leaders will inevitably meet. The remaining time will serve as a test of whether they can restore at least minimal connections in the frozen Japan-China relationship.
* This article has been translated by AI.
Copyright ⓒ Aju Press All rights reserved.