Iran looms large over the two superpowers even as both sides seek to avoid openly framing the summit around the conflict.
Broader issues including trade tensions, Taiwan, rare earths, semiconductors and energy security are expected to dominate the two-day talks, leaving limited room for North Korea to emerge as a central agenda item.
Trump departed for China aboard Air Force One on Tuesday, leaving Joint Base Andrews in Maryland at 2:36 p.m. local time. He is expected to arrive in Beijing late Wednesday afternoon ahead of a two-day official visit beginning Thursday.
Trump is making the first U.S. presidential state visit to China in nearly a decade after the trip was delayed by the Iran war. The meeting is also the first of several planned face-to-face encounters between the two leaders this year.
Trump said last week, “We’re doing a lot of business with China.” He also said the United States was “making a lot of money” from trade with China.
But the meeting arrives under the shadow of the unresolved Iran conflict that delayed Trump’s Beijing trip and sharply reduced expectations for major diplomatic breakthroughs. Instead of projecting decisive strength after the U.S. strikes on Iran, Washington now faces mounting pressure over the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy flows.
The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil traditionally flows, remains closed with no clear pathway toward reopening. The disruption poses a direct threat to China’s economy and its Gulf relationships because Beijing relies heavily on energy imports transiting the route.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called on China this week to “step up with some diplomacy,” as Washington looked to Beijing for help in easing the crisis.
Taiwan is also expected to be among the most sensitive agenda items. Beijing claims the self-ruled island as part of its territory and has vowed to take control of it, using force if necessary. Washington does not formally recognize Taiwan but continues to provide defensive weapons to Taipei.
An $11 billion U.S. arms package for Taiwan has reportedly been stalled ahead of the summit. Beijing is also expected to press Washington to change its official wording on Taiwan from saying it “does not support” Taiwanese independence to explicitly “opposing” it.
Against that backdrop, North Korea appears likely to remain a secondary issue despite historically serving as an occasional diplomatic icebreaker between Trump and Xi as the two share a degree of personal rapport with reclusive ruler Kim Jong-un.
Dov Levin, a professor in the Department of Politics and Public Administration at the University of Hong Kong, predicted that there will be no significant discussion on North Korea at the summit.
Levin said the Iran war and maintaining the truce in the U.S.-China trade war would be the two major topics.
He said Trump may ask Xi for help on Iran to get Tehran to “make more concessions to the U.S. regarding the nuclear issue” and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
“I do not expect North Korea to emerge as a key issue during the summit,” Christopher Fariss, a professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Michigan agreed.
Fariss said he expects the meeting to focus on trade and tariff issues, noting chief executives of major U.S. Big Tech and Wall Street firms are accompanying Trump to China.
He added that South Korea and Taiwan could emerge as talking points within broader economic discussions.
Elon Musk, Apple CEO Tim Cook and Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg are reportedly included in Trump’s delegation to China.
“The main items will be on several economic matters,” Albo said, citing as examples “the tariff war, e-vehicles and rare earths, the chip war and international monetary issues.”
Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz instead would be treated as important agenda items.
He added that “the Gulf states bending away from the U.S. adds to the east-east trade linkages between the GCC and China.”
James Morrow, a professor of world politics at the University of Michigan, said other issues are likely to overshadow North Korea during the visit.
He pointed first to U.S.-China trade and broader global trade tensions, followed by Taiwan, which he said Xi is expected to raise, and the U.S.-Israel war against Iran.
Compared with those issues, Morrow said North Korea appears less urgent in Washington, noting that Kim Jong-un has not pushed the country back onto the international agenda as he did in 2017, when Pyongyang conducted a series of missile and nuclear demonstrations.
While South Koreans may view the situation differently, Morrow said North Korea’s tests this year are not seen as a central concern in the United States.
“I expect that North Korean issues will not be addressed, as this U.S.-China summit is focused on economic security,” said Rep. Kim Young-bae of the Democratic Party of Korea, vice chair of the National Assembly’s Foreign Affairs and Unification Committee.
“I think North Korean issues may be addressed sometime next year after the Iran issue is settled following the U.S. midterm elections in November,” Kim added.
Rep. Yoon Hu-duk of the Democratic Party of Korea, also a member of the Foreign Affairs and Unification Committee, similarly predicted that North Korean issues would not be addressed at the summit.
“Ahead of last year's U.S.-China summit in Busan, President Trump continued to send love calls to Kim Jong-un, raising the possibility of a North Korea-U.S. summit, but currently President Trump is not sending any love calls to Kim Jong-un at all,” Yoon said.
“North Korean issues appear to be outside President Trump's current area of interest,” he added.
“The Iran issue and economic issues such as rare earths will make up most of the discussions, and North Korean issues may be addressed formally but will not become a major agenda item,” said Rep. Kim Ki-woong of the People Power Party, a former vice unification minister.
Kim said that for Trump, North Korean issues are not urgent and remain merely a diplomatic card that could be used later as a political achievement before the U.S. midterm elections.
He added that with Trump currently needing Xi’s cooperation because of the Iran war, there is little reason for Washington to specifically press Beijing on North Korea.
“However, as six meetings are scheduled between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, I expect the U.S. side will bring up a discussion on North Korea at least once,” Kim added.
Dong Wang, a professor at the School of International Studies at Peking University, maintained that the two leaders would still treat North Korea as an important agenda item.
He said regional security in Northeast Asia is a “critical matter for peace and stability,” and therefore the two leaders will address it as a major issue.
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