The nationwide local elections scheduled for June 3 are just 20 days away. This election, marking the one-year anniversary of the Yoon Suk Yeol administration, is taking on a significant role as a midterm evaluation. Recent polling indicates a tightening race in Seoul and the Yeongnam region, challenging the narrative of a decisive victory for the ruling party. The convergence of conservative voter mobilization and pressing issues such as real estate has hindered the ruling party's momentum.
According to political sources on May 14, the gap in support between the Democratic Party candidate Jung Won-o and the People Power Party candidate Oh Se-hoon in the Seoul mayoral race has significantly narrowed this month. A survey conducted by Gallup Korea, commissioned by News1, from May 9 to 10 among 802 Seoul voters found Jung at 46% and Oh at 38%, reflecting an 8 percentage point difference.
This gap has decreased from double digits just a month ago. A previous survey commissioned by Segye Ilbo and conducted by Gallup Korea from April 10 to 11 showed a 15 percentage point lead for Jung in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup (telephone interview, 95% confidence level, margin of error ±3.5%).
In Daegu, often considered the heart of conservatism, as well as in Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam (PK), the two party candidates are in a close contest within the margin of error. A telephone interview survey conducted by Meta Voice and Research App, commissioned by JTBC, from May 5 to 6 among 804 Daegu voters showed Democratic Party candidate Kim Boo-kyum at 40% and People Power Party candidate Choo Kyung-ho at 41%. Initially, the ruling party had a significant lead, but backlash from conservative voters against the so-called 'manipulated prosecution special investigation' has shifted the race to a tight contest.
The political landscape in Jeollabuk-do, a traditional Democratic stronghold, is also unpredictable. A survey conducted by JoWon C&I, commissioned by News1's Jeonbuk reporting office from May 9 to 10 among 1,000 Jeollabuk-do voters found independent candidate Kim Kwan-young at 43.2% and Democratic Party candidate Lee Won-taek at 39.7%.
Experts express cautious optimism for the ruling party, noting that while the situation appears favorable, it is not guaranteed. Political analyst Lee Jong-hoon stated, "Although President Yoon's approval ratings are high, making it a challenging election for the opposition, issues like real estate and candidate unification could be significant variables." Shin Yul, a professor of political science at Myongji University, added, "If a candidate from the People Power Party wins in any of the symbolic regions like Seoul or Busan, it will be difficult for the ruling party to claim victory."
The News1 and Gallup surveys were conducted via telephone interviews with an 11.0% response rate and a margin of error of ±3.5% at a 95% confidence level. The JTBC, Meta Voice, and Research App survey had an 11.3% response rate and a margin of error of ±3.5% at a 95% confidence level. The News1 Jeonbuk and JoWon C&I survey was conducted using an automated response method with a 14.8% response rate and a margin of error of ±3.1% at a 95% confidence level. For detailed information on each survey, please refer to the Central Election Survey Deliberation Commission's website.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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