The nationwide local elections scheduled for June 3 are just 20 days away. This election, marking the one-year anniversary of the Yoon Suk Yeol administration, is taking on a critical evaluation role as recent polling indicates a competitive landscape, particularly in Seoul and the Yeongnam region, challenging the narrative of a decisive victory for the ruling party. The convergence of conservative voter mobilization and pressing issues like real estate has stalled the ruling party's momentum.
According to political sources on May 14, the gap in support between Democratic Party candidate Jeong Won-o and People Power Party candidate Oh Se-hoon in the Seoul mayoral race has significantly narrowed this month. A poll conducted by Gallup Korea, commissioned by News1, surveyed 802 Seoul voters from May 9 to 10, revealing Jeong at 46% and Oh at 38%, an 8 percentage point difference.
Just a month ago, the gap was in double digits, but it has now fallen to single digits. A previous poll commissioned by the Segye Ilbo and conducted by Gallup Korea from April 10 to 11 showed a 15 percentage point lead for the two candidates in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup (conducted via mobile phone interviews with a 95% confidence level and a margin of error of ±3.5%).
In Daegu, often considered a conservative stronghold, as well as in Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam (PK), candidates from both parties are in a tight race within the margin of error. A poll conducted by Metavoice and Research App, commissioned by JTBC, surveyed 804 Daegu voters from May 5 to 6, showing Democratic Party candidate Kim Boo-kyum at 40% and People Power Party candidate Choo Kyung-ho at 41%. Initially, the ruling party had a significant lead, but backlash from conservative voters against the so-called 'manipulated prosecution special investigation' has led to a tightening of the race.
The situation in Jeollabuk-do, a traditional Democratic Party stronghold, is also unpredictable. A survey conducted by JoWon C&I, commissioned by News1's Jeollabuk-do bureau, from May 9 to 10, showed independent candidate Kim Kwan-young at 43.2% and Democratic Party candidate Lee Won-taek at 39.7%.
Experts suggest that while the ruling party appears to have an advantage, it is not a guarantee of victory. Political analyst Lee Jong-hoon stated, "Although President Yoon's approval ratings are high, making it a challenging election for the People Power Party, issues such as real estate and candidate unification could play a significant role." Shin Yul, a professor of political science at Myongji University, noted, "If a People Power Party candidate wins even one symbolic area like Seoul or Busan, it will be difficult for the ruling party to claim victory."
The News1 and Gallup Korea polls were conducted via mobile phone interviews with an 11.0% response rate and a margin of error of ±3.5% at a 95% confidence level. The JTBC, Metavoice, and Research App poll had an 11.3% response rate with a margin of error of ±3.5% at a 95% confidence level. The News1 Jeollabuk-do and JoWon C&I poll was conducted using an automated response method with a 14.8% response rate and a margin of error of ±3.1% at a 95% confidence level. For detailed information on each poll, please refer to the Central Election Poll Survey Deliberation Committee's website.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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