Japan is approaching the U.S.-China summit with caution rather than anticipation. The Yomiuri Shimbun reported on May 14 that key issues such as the situation in Iran, navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, U.S.-China trade relations, rare earth export regulations, and the Taiwan issue are expected to be discussed. All these matters are directly linked to Japan's security and economy. Japanese media view this summit as a critical moment not only for assessing whether U.S.-China trade tensions will ease but also for determining if the two countries will bypass Japan to negotiate their interests directly in a 'Group of Two' (G2) framework.
The Nikkei reported on May 14 that the Japanese government had considered a plan for President Trump to stop in Japan before heading to China. It stated that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi aimed to convey Japan's concerns about the threat from China directly to President Trump. The Japanese government has been wary of the possibility that the U.S.-China summit could lead to a major compromise between the two nations that excludes Japan.
Japan's concerns extend beyond mere diplomatic exclusion. If the U.S. and China grow closer, there is a fear that U.S. engagement in East Asian security could wane, undermining deterrence regarding Taiwan or North Korea's nuclear and missile issues. Additionally, a loosening of economic security measures against China in areas like semiconductors and rare earths could burden Japan. The Nikkei reported that Prime Minister Takaichi wanted to directly communicate to President Trump that such trends would ultimately benefit China.
This is not the first time Japan has attempted such outreach. Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has repeatedly emphasized the military threat posed by China since Trump's election in 2016, presenting data to underscore the importance of the U.S.-Japan alliance in countering China. Prime Minister Takaichi appears to have sought a similar approach.
However, this plan was overshadowed by developments in the Middle East. Japan initially viewed the U.S.-China summit as a pivotal moment for its foreign diplomacy, considering Takaichi's visit to the U.S. and Trump's planned stop in Japan to reinforce awareness of the Chinese threat. However, following the U.S. and Israel's attack on Iran in late February, key topics shifted from China to the Middle East, particularly concerning stability in the Strait of Hormuz and energy transport. President Trump postponed his originally scheduled trip to China from late March to May due to the situation in the Middle East, which also derailed Japan's plan for a pre-China visit.
On May 12, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Vessenet visited Japan and met with Prime Minister Takaichi, but the meeting lasted only 15 minutes. When asked by reporters afterward if Takaichi had made specific requests regarding China, Vessenet replied, "No." In contrast, a meeting on the same day between Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama and Vessenet lasted 35 minutes, focusing on currency trends amid the Middle East crisis. A Japanese Foreign Ministry official noted, "This time, discussions between finance ministers were crucial."
China is attempting to frame this visit as a U.S.-China bilateral issue. The Asahi Shimbun reported on May 14 that China insisted during pre-summit negotiations that President Trump would not stop in any other countries. During his first visit to China in January 2017, Trump visited Japan and South Korea before arriving in China. This time, the analysis suggests that China aims to showcase its influence through direct exchanges with the U.S.
Japan is particularly focused on the Taiwan issue. China considers Taiwan a "core interest," and President Trump has indicated he will discuss U.S. arms sales to Taiwan with President Xi. If U.S. policy toward Taiwan changes, Japan may face pressure to reassess its own security strategy.
Japan views this summit not merely as a U.S.-China diplomatic event but as a turning point that could influence its own security and economic strategies. While easing U.S.-China tensions could stabilize supply chains and energy markets, any retreat in U.S. measures to contain China could increase Japan's strategic burdens. This is why the Japanese government is closely monitoring President Trump's visit to China.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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