The booming artificial intelligence (AI) sector and the blockade of the Hormuz Strait are sharply dividing the economic landscape in Asia. While semiconductor powerhouses South Korea and Taiwan are experiencing unprecedented growth, manufacturing-heavy countries like India, Thailand, and the Philippines are suffering from a historic oil price shock.
Economists describe this phenomenon as an "Asian K-shaped recovery," where the benefits of the AI boom and the pains of fuel shortages are moving in opposite directions within the same region. The ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Israel against Iran has effectively closed the Hormuz Strait, exacerbating the widening gap between these two economic trajectories.
The upper curve is dominated by semiconductor giants. Taiwan's GDP grew by 13.69% in the first quarter, marking its highest growth in 39 years. The Taiwanese stock market has risen to become the sixth largest globally, surpassing Canada. South Korea's KOSPI has surged nearly 80% this year, achieving the best performance among major global indices. South Korea has now overtaken the UK to become the seventh-largest stock market in the world, valued at $4.04 trillion. Six of the world's top ten stock markets are now in Asia, as investors begin to prioritize AI over geopolitical concerns. This shift is reflected in record operating profits for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix in the first quarter.
Samsung's market capitalization has surpassed $1 trillion, while Taiwan's TSMC accounts for over 40% of the market capitalization of the Taiwanese stock market. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) projects that the global AI market will grow to $4.8 trillion by 2033, approximately 25 times larger than in 2023. This indicates that the semiconductor supercycle is solidifying into a new industrial paradigm.
In stark contrast, the economic outlook for countries in southern and western Asia is grim. In the Philippines, where over 36% of the consumer price index (CPI) is linked to fuel, gasoline prices have exceeded 100 pesos (about $5.81) per liter. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) is caught in a dilemma over whether to raise interest rates to curb inflation or keep them steady to protect growth.
The Manila government has even introduced a four-day workweek to reduce fuel demand. Thailand is facing a nationwide fuel shortage, and the Pakistani government has urged cricket fans to watch matches at home to conserve gasoline. Such administrative measures, typically unimaginable, are now being implemented.
The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) estimates that approximately 8.8 million people in the Asia-Pacific region are at risk of falling into poverty due to the war, which could reduce regional GDP by 0.3 to 0.8 percentage points. Households near the poverty line are being exposed to soaring fuel and food prices, shaking the social safety net.
At the center of this divergence is the competition for heavy and medium crude oil, which is crucial for refining margins and underpins Middle Eastern exports. While the U.S. is the world's largest oil producer, most of its output is light shale oil, leading Asian refiners to engage in fierce bidding for non-Middle Eastern sour crude oil that bypasses the Hormuz Strait. The competition among South Korea, China, and Japan for the same quantities is intensifying, causing premiums to rise sharply.
Jang Tae-hoon, a senior researcher at the Korea Energy Economics Institute, stated, "Unless a reasonable and effective resolution to the war is reached that can persuade shipowners and insurers, it will be extremely difficult for oil prices to return to pre-war levels in the long term." He added, "If the conflict continues, competition for crude oil outside the Middle East will become inevitable, with China and Japan also bidding for the same quantities."
As of April 14, Brent crude was trading at around $106 per barrel. The number of vessels transiting the Hormuz Strait has plummeted from an average of 135 before the war to about 18. The World Bank reported that Brent crude prices surged by approximately 65% as of the end of March, marking the largest monthly increase on record.
However, the benefits of the AI boom are not evenly distributed among the winning groups. The labor union representing about 30,000 members in Samsung Electronics' semiconductor division announced a strike from May 21 to June 7 after wage negotiations broke down on May 13. The union is demanding a 15% performance bonus based on operating profits and a 7% increase in base salary. JP Morgan Chase estimates that if the strike lasts 18 days, Samsung's quarterly operating profit could decline by as much as 12%.
The situation in Taiwan is similarly concerning. Although the semiconductor industry accounts for only 4% of total employment, starting salaries for new hires are five times higher than in other sectors, raising concerns about polarization and economic concentration. As wealth and talent are drawn into one industry, the wage gap between traditional manufacturing and service sectors is widening.
Officials and market experts warn that this growing disparity could have repercussions beyond Asia, impacting the global economy. Increasing inequality may dampen consumption, complicate monetary policy, and disrupt global trade flows. There are also concerns that fuel shortages could soon reach a critical point.
Andy O'Brien, Chief Financial Officer of ConocoPhillips, stated during the first-quarter earnings call that some import-dependent countries could face severe shortages by June or July. Valero Energy, a U.S. refining company, also warned that supply chain pressures are likely to intensify.
Valero CEO Lane Riggs noted, "Every day that the Hormuz Strait remains blocked adds at least three days to our inventory replenishment time," adding that it could take six to twelve months to fully restore inventory.
The question remains: when will the upward curve driven by AI and the downward pressure from oil prices converge again? Market consensus suggests that this will ultimately depend on the resolution of the Hormuz Strait blockade. South Korea, benefiting from the semiconductor supercycle while grappling with the shocks to its energy and petrochemical supply chains, is particularly vulnerable to shifts in balance that could have more direct repercussions than in any other Asian country.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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