The bid to supply Canada with up to 12 next-generation submarines has narrowed to consortia led by Korea's Hanwha Ocean and Germany's Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems (TKMS). Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has said Ottawa aims to decide on a supplier for the Canadian Patrol Submarine Project by the end of next month.
As Ottawa seeks to replace its aging Victoria-class fleet, analysts cited by Canadian media estimate the total cost at between 60 billion and 120 billion Canadian dollars over the submarines' life cycle, including roughly 24 billion to 30 billion for the initial purchase.
Hanwha Ocean is offering a variant of South Korea's KSS-III Batch-II submarine, while TKMS is proposing the Type 212CD, jointly procured by Germany and Norway. Both are conventionally powered diesel-electric submarines.
Seoul has mounted an unusually aggressive campaign. The Republic of Korea Navy's Dosan Ahn Chang-ho, a KSS-III-class vessel, left Jinhae Naval Base on March 25 on a 14,000-kilometer trans-Pacific voyage. The submarine is expected to arrive at CFB Esquimalt in Victoria, British Columbia, before participating in joint exercises with the Royal Canadian Navy in June. During a stop in Hawaii on May 7, two Canadian submarine crew members boarded the vessel to observe its operations firsthand.
The June exercise is expected to involve one submarine and one surface vessel from each side. The voyage allows South Korea to demonstrate both the submarine's capabilities and its ability to operate the platform across the Pacific — a pointed argument to Ottawa about operational reach.
Diplomatic efforts are also intensifying. According to sources familiar with the matter, Seoul is considering sending a high-level government delegation, potentially including presidential chief of staff Kang Hoon-sik, to Ottawa.
Canada extended the bidding process in early April, giving the two remaining contenders more time to revise their proposals — a move widely seen as a signal that Ottawa wanted stronger economic and industrial benefits before making a final decision. Hanwha Ocean has since raised the value of its proposed economic benefits from 60 billion to about 70 billion Canadian dollars, and added a plan to produce military and industrial vehicles in Canada using local parts and labor.
The geopolitical backdrop has added another layer of complexity. Trade pressure from the Trump administration has reinforced calls in Canada to reduce dependence on the United States and deepen strategic ties with Europe and Asia — a current that both bidders are trying to ride.
Canada has not ordered a new submarine since the Cold War era and has never sought to acquire 12 at once. Its current fleet of four secondhand Victoria-class submarines has been plagued by persistent readiness problems, with reportedly only one vessel available for operations at times.
On paper, TKMS holds a clear export advantage, having supplied submarines to navies around the world. Hanwha Ocean, by contrast, counts only one overseas submarine contract — with Indonesia. But Seoul is betting that a submarine arriving under its own power on Canada's doorstep, crewed in part by Canadians, makes an argument that no brochure can.
The opportunity comes as South Korea pursues an ambitious goal of becoming one of the world's four largest defense exporters. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, South Korea ranked among the world's top ten arms exporters from 2020 to 2024, with systems including the K9 self-propelled howitzer, Chunmoo multiple rocket launcher and FA-50 light attack aircraft expanding Seoul's footprint in NATO markets.
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