Why Xi Jinping Cannot Abandon Taiwan

During a summit between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, the most prolonged and sensitive topic of discussion was Taiwan. President Trump publicly revealed that Xi asked whether the U.S. would defend Taiwan. While the conversation also touched on tariffs, trade, and supply chains, Taiwan remained at the forefront of Xi's concerns.
 
China's characterization of the Taiwan issue as a "core interest" is not new. However, this obsession has intensified recently, primarily because Taiwan has become the heart of the global artificial intelligence (AI) industry.
 
Until a few years ago, the Taiwan issue was largely interpreted through the lenses of history, nationalism, and territorial sovereignty. While these factors remain significant, under Xi's regime, the "great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation" is not merely a slogan for economic growth; it is a political project aimed at achieving reunification with Taiwan by 2049, the centenary of the founding of the People's Republic of China. For the Chinese Communist Party, Taiwan is not just an island but a symbol tied to its legitimacy.
However, Taiwan now has an additional layer: AI dominance.
 
Today, the global AI industry cannot function without Taiwan. NVIDIA's AI semiconductors, as well as servers from Apple and Meta, and Tesla's autonomous driving systems all rely on advanced processes from Taiwan's TSMC. Despite the design prowess of U.S. tech giants, production remains dependent on Taiwan, which is at the center of the world's cutting-edge semiconductor supply chain.
 
Interestingly, the situation is not much different for China. Amid U.S. semiconductor sanctions, China has been advocating for an "AI ecosystem without NVIDIA," yet many AI semiconductors developed by Chinese companies still rely on TSMC's production lines. At the Beijing International Auto Show, Chinese semiconductor firms showcased AI vehicle chips, consistently highlighting their reliance on TSMC's 4-nanometer process.
 
Ultimately, both the U.S. and China, as well as the entire global AI industry, are dependent on Taiwan. This is why Xi cannot abandon Taiwan. While Taiwan was once a political symbol, it has now become a strategic asset for future industries. Semiconductors are no longer just components; they are critical infrastructure that influences military power, economic strength, and AI competitiveness. For Xi, Taiwan is both "territory that must be unified" and "a technological stronghold that cannot be relinquished to the U.S."
 
Another critical aspect is the Chinese leadership's perception of time. While U.S. policies can shift dramatically with elections, China operates on a 10- to 20-year timeline. There is a strong belief within China that "time is on China's side." In reality, the economic relationship between China and Taiwan is deepening. Cross-strait trade has significantly increased over the past decade, and industrial connections have strengthened.
 
Xi's regime is solidifying its long-term governance structure. China has entered a new five-year planning phase, and discussions suggest that Xi's leadership could continue beyond 2027. This indicates that Taiwan strategy is not a short-term event but a long-term project.
 
The challenge is that as the AI era unfolds, Taiwan's strategic value will only grow. Just as past struggles over oil shook the Middle East, future competition over semiconductors is likely to disrupt East Asia, with Taiwan at the center.
 
In 1954, Mao Zedong stated, "The most important issue in U.S.-China relations is the Taiwan issue, and it is a long-term problem." Seventy years later, that statement still holds true. The difference now is that while Taiwan was once a geopolitical issue of the Cold War, it has become a key engine of the global economy in the AI era.
 
Thus, Xi cannot abandon Taiwan—not just for territorial reasons, but because the future world order hinges on that island.