A study has found that climate adaptation policies, such as the creation of parks and wetland restoration, can lead to rising property values and an influx of residents, potentially displacing low-income native populations—a phenomenon referred to as the "gentrification paradox."
KAIST announced on May 18 that a research team led by Professor Kim Seung-kyum from the Department of AI Future Studies, in collaboration with researchers from Peking University and New York University Shanghai, has empirically identified this paradox by analyzing urban areas across 32 African countries.
The team tracked changes in 5,503 administrative units across 221 urban areas from 2005 to 2024. They found that the overall gentrification index in areas with climate adaptation facilities rose by an average of 41% compared to areas without such developments. The findings were published in the international journal Nature Cities on April 13.
Gentrification refers to the phenomenon where environmental improvements inadvertently lead to the displacement of native residents. As urban redevelopment and facility investments increase local property values, economically vulnerable groups may find it difficult to afford rising housing costs, leading them to leave their communities.
The research team employed satellite imagery analysis combined with socioeconomic data and applied a difference-in-differences method to verify the causal effects of climate adaptation policies. This is the first study to empirically demonstrate the causal relationship between climate adaptation and gentrification on a continental scale in Africa.
The analysis revealed that housing prices in areas with climate adaptation facilities increased by approximately 13%, and there was a significant rise in the influx of external populations. This indicates that facilities created for citizen protection may paradoxically exacerbate housing insecurity for economically vulnerable groups.
The research team emphasized that climate adaptation policies should not merely focus on infrastructure development but also address the distribution of benefits and burdens. They recommend implementing measures for housing stability, including land ownership protection, public housing supply, and the recovery of development profits, alongside the expansion of green and blue spaces.
Professor Kim Seung-kyum stated, "While climate adaptation policies can make cities safer, they can also lead to rising housing costs and population displacement, increasing housing insecurity for existing residents. Future climate policies must consider not only environmental improvements but also the protection of vulnerable groups and housing stability."
This research was conducted as part of a project supported by the Ministry of Science and ICT, focusing on the development of an AI-based integrated assessment model for climate-human interactions.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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