Former U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates criticized Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for his overly optimistic view that Iran's regime could be toppled solely through military strikes. In an interview aired on CBS's "Face the Nation" on May 17, Gates recalled a meeting with Netanyahu in 2009, during which he noted that Netanyahu underestimated Iran's resolve and ability to maintain its regime.
Gates stated, "Netanyahu believed that if Israel attacked Iran's nuclear facilities, the Iranian people would rise up and overthrow the regime, and that Iran would not retaliate against U.S. targets or regional oil facilities." He added, "I told him at the time that he was completely wrong," emphasizing that Netanyahu had misjudged the resilience of the Iranian people.
Gates assessed that Netanyahu's unrealistic judgment was influenced by Israel's past experiences with minimal retaliation following attacks on Iraq's Osirak reactor and Syria's reactor. He reiterated, "Netanyahu claimed that the Iranian regime was weak and would collapse under the first attack, and that Iran would not have time to respond with other actions. I told him then that he was wrong."
U.S. Faces Challenges in Addressing Iran MilitarilyWhile Gates acknowledged that the Iranian regime has weakened, he believes the likelihood of a popular uprising in the short term is low. He remarked, "The chances of a short-term uprising are very low. Iran's internal control still appears intact, and there are hardly any public protests."
He added, "People are intimidated and fearful, and they are currently focused on how to make a living in the present situation."
Gates predicted that any potential instability within the Iranian regime would manifest more as internal fractures after a conflict rather than immediate public uprisings during wartime. He explained, "What we typically see in such regimes is not a change of government in the streets but rather the regime itself beginning to fracture, with factions emerging that seek different paths and internal disputes over control."
Regarding the Iranian nuclear issue, Gates emphasized that military action alone would not provide a fundamental solution. He stated, "The only way to remove enriched uranium from Iran and end its nuclear ambitions is through negotiations. Applying pressure to bring them to the negotiating table is the only path that offers any chance of success."
However, he asserted that President Donald Trump cannot disengage from the Iran issue. Gates remarked, "The U.S. president cannot step back, and Israel cannot resolve this issue alone. Israel is strong, but it does not possess the type of power that the U.S. has."
He also assessed that it is difficult to declare that the war is over from either the U.S. or Israeli perspective at this point.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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