Following the KOSPI's surge past the 8,000 mark, the volume of short selling transactions has risen to approximately 2.8 trillion won. However, during the same period, the balance of securities lending has significantly decreased, indicating a trend that diverges from simple bearish betting.
According to the Korea Exchange, as of May 15, the total value of short selling transactions reached 28.558 trillion won, marking a consecutive two-day record above 28 trillion won, following 28.383 trillion won on May 14. The short selling volume had been around 24.597 trillion won on May 13 but showed an upward trend on the 14th and 15th.
Foreign investors led the short selling activity, accounting for about 70% of the total with a transaction value of 19.298 trillion won on May 15. For four consecutive days from May 12 to 15, foreign short selling remained around 19 trillion won, indicating an increase in hedging transactions at high price levels.
Institutional short selling also saw a resurgence. After a decline to 4.807 trillion won on May 13, institutional short selling values increased again to 8.240 trillion won on May 14 and 8.977 trillion won on May 15. Analysts suggest that this reflects adjustments in positions in anticipation of increased volatility following the KOSPI's rise above 8,000.
However, the trend in securities lending appears different from typical early bearish market patterns. According to the Korea Financial Investment Association, the number of shares returned in securities lending on May 15 was 99.16 million, significantly exceeding the number of shares lent out, which was 39.51 million. Consequently, the balance of securities lending dropped from 182.4304 trillion won on May 14 to 170.2727 trillion won on May 15, a decrease of about 12 trillion won.
Market analysts note that typically, when confidence in a market downturn strengthens, both short selling and securities lending balances increase. However, in this instance, while short selling has been active, the actual cumulative short positions have decreased, raising the possibility of profit-taking or short covering by existing short sellers.
Looking ahead, market observers believe that the trends in foreign futures positions and securities lending balances will serve as additional variables. A securities industry official stated, "The current trend is more about responding to short-term volatility at high levels of the KOSPI rather than aggressive bearish betting. If the decline in securities lending continues, the possibility of a short covering rally cannot be ruled out."
* This article has been translated by AI.
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