On May 18, during a virtual appearance at the Smart Mobility Summit in Tel Aviv, Musk stated, "In five years, or at the latest in ten years, AI will be responsible for about 90% of driving distance in self-driving cars." He added, "In ten years, driving by humans will be quite exceptional."
Musk also anticipates a rapid expansion of self-driving cars in the U.S. in the short term. He mentioned that autonomous vehicles without safety monitors could be rolled out nationwide by the end of this year. He noted that such vehicles are already operating in Texas.
This short-term outlook aligns with Tesla's robotaxi service currently operating in Austin, Dallas, and Houston, Texas.
However, Reuters reported that its own test results indicated long wait times and instances where vehicles were unavailable. Some rides also experienced issues with drop-off points being designated far from the intended destinations.
Musk's predictions are closely tied to Tesla's business strategy, which emphasizes robotaxis and full self-driving (FSD) software as key growth drivers amid slowing electric vehicle sales. He has consistently highlighted that self-driving technology is a crucial variable influencing Tesla's corporate value.
Nevertheless, there are cautious views regarding the feasibility of these predictions. Reuters pointed out that Musk has made several optimistic forecasts about self-driving cars over the past decade, many of which have not materialized within the proposed timelines.
Safety and regulatory issues also pose challenges. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) recently announced a recall of 218,868 Tesla vehicles due to potential collision risks from delayed rear camera footage. Additionally, Waymo, a subsidiary of Google's parent company Alphabet, recalled about 3,800 robotaxis in the U.S. due to risks associated with entering flooded roads.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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