Speculation is growing that the United States and Iran are nearing a memorandum of understanding (MOU) that would extend a 60-day ceasefire and resume nuclear negotiations. However, experts warn that reaching a final nuclear agreement could take considerable time due to significant differences over key issues such as halting uranium enrichment, handling highly enriched uranium, and lifting sanctions against Iran.
According to reports from Yonhap News and Axios, a U.S. political news outlet, discussions are underway regarding a draft MOU that includes extending the ceasefire and resuming nuclear talks. The draft reportedly states that Iran will negotiate on halting its pursuit of nuclear weapons, discontinuing its uranium enrichment program, and eliminating its stockpile of highly enriched uranium.
However, many analysts believe the negotiation process will not be straightforward. The New York Times reported that while U.S. officials claim Iran has promised to forfeit its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, Iranian government representatives argue that the draft lacks specific details on handling the nuclear program and only includes a general agreement to discuss nuclear issues over the next 30 to 60 days.
Moreover, the verification and inspection of nuclear materials are complex technical procedures that can take several months, making it unlikely that a final agreement can be reached within the 60-day timeframe.
For context, the initial stages of the Iran nuclear negotiations, known as the Joint Plan of Action (JPOA), took six months to produce an agreement, followed by an extended verification period. The final agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), required an additional 20 months of negotiations.
Currently, the negotiating environment is considered more challenging than it was during those earlier talks. Following the Trump administration's unilateral withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018, distrust regarding the U.S. commitment to any agreement has deepened within Iran.
A critical variable in the negotiations is the handling of highly enriched uranium. Reports indicate that Iran currently possesses approximately 440 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%. However, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mostafa Khamenei has stated that this material cannot be exported.
Additionally, some nuclear materials are reportedly located within Iran's underground facilities in Isfahan, which have recently been targeted by U.S. airstrikes, complicating the verification process.
As a result, market analysts suggest that even if the MOU is finalized, it is more likely to lead to a prolonged interim agreement characterized by repeated extensions of the ceasefire and negotiations, rather than a swift final nuclear deal.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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