In May 2026, the Middle East once again demonstrated its volatility as tensions escalated between the United States and Iran, bringing the world economy to a standstill amid fears of conflict in the Hormuz Strait. International oil prices surged, financial markets wobbled, and nations braced for the possibility of a full-scale war in the region.
Fortunately, reports indicate that the U.S. and Iran are nearing an agreement to extend a ceasefire and finalize a memorandum of understanding (MOU) aimed at peace negotiations. This agreement is expected to include the reopening of the Hormuz Strait, a partial resumption of Iranian oil exports, and a revival of nuclear talks, potentially alleviating immediate economic concerns.
However, this development can only be described as a temporary fix. The underlying issues in the Middle East remain unresolved. Distrust between the U.S. and Iran, conflicts involving Israel and Hezbollah, historical Sunni-Shia rivalries, and structural tensions intertwined with oil, religion, and power dynamics persist.
The region requires a new civilizational order that goes beyond a mere ceasefire. A lasting peace can only be achieved when Judaism, Christianity, and Islam recognize each other not as adversaries but as civilizations with shared roots. I propose calling this new framework the 'Noah Covenant.'
Why is the Hormuz Strait critical to the global economy?
The Hormuz Strait is not just a maritime route; it is a vital artery for global oil transportation. Approximately 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products pass through this narrow waterway daily, accounting for about one-fifth of the world's oil consumption. Oil and LNG from Middle Eastern producers like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, and Iraq flow through this route to Asia and Europe.
For industrial nations in Northeast Asia, such as South Korea, Japan, and China, the Hormuz Strait is a lifeline. A significant portion of South Korea's oil imports transit through this area, and the stability of its refining, petrochemical, steel, and shipping industries heavily relies on this route. Thus, instability in the Hormuz Strait is not merely a regional issue; it poses a risk to the South Korean economy.
During the recent crisis between the U.S. and Iran, global financial markets reacted swiftly. Oil prices spiked, with Brent and WTI crude experiencing significant fluctuations due to the Middle East risk premium. Shipping insurance rates and oil transportation costs also rose. South Korean and Japanese stock markets saw volatility, particularly in energy and defense sectors, as global investors shifted towards safe-haven assets like the dollar and gold.
The world was tense for one primary reason: What would happen if the Hormuz Strait were actually blocked?
In the past, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard has effectively used the Strait as a 'strategic hostage' through mine-laying, tanker seizures, and drone threats. The U.S. has responded by significantly bolstering its military presence in the region with aircraft carriers, strategic bombers, and missile defense systems.
The situation was perilous once again. Within the U.S., discussions arose about potential bunker-buster strikes on Iran's underground nuclear facilities in Isfahan, while Iran kept the door open for asymmetric retaliation against U.S. bases and allies. If military conflict had erupted, forecasts suggested that oil prices could have soared above $150 per barrel, potentially triggering inflation and supply chain shocks worldwide.
Ultimately, the ceasefire agreement was a necessary choice for the global economy.
The core of the U.S.-Iran MOU draft focuses on three key points: first, the reopening of the Hormuz Strait; second, a 60-day extension of the ceasefire; and third, the pursuit of peace negotiations, including nuclear talks, during this period.
On the surface, this appears to be a significant advancement. Iran has promised to remove mines from the Strait and ensure freedom of navigation, while the U.S. is expected to allow some Iranian oil exports and ease port blockades. Both sides will also bring uranium enrichment and high-enriched uranium issues to the negotiating table.
However, neither side has made fundamental concessions. The U.S. emphasizes the principle of 'relief for performance,' meaning sanctions will only be eased if Iran's nuclear abandonment measures are verified. Conversely, Iran maintains that 'preemptive concessions are impossible,' particularly regarding the 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium, which is tied to domestic political and Revolutionary Guard pride.
President Donald Trump aims to frame this as a strategic victory for the U.S., while Iran insists it must not appear as 'capitulation.' This reveals the deep-seated distrust between the two parties.
The U.S. suspects that Iran is trying to buy time to become a threshold nuclear state, while Iran believes the U.S. could reverse any agreement at any moment. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) collapsed after the Trump administration's unilateral withdrawal, further complicating trust issues.
From Iran's perspective, trusting U.S. promises is challenging. From the U.S. standpoint, Iran's nuclear activities are not trustworthy. Thus, reaching a final agreement in this negotiation will likely be difficult in the short term.
Moreover, nuclear negotiations are not resolved overnight. Issues such as high-enriched uranium processing, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) verification, inspections, facility access, sanctions relief, and unfreezing assets can take months or even years to resolve. Additionally, Iran is believed to possess a substantial amount of 60% enriched uranium, a situation that cannot be settled through mere political declarations.
Ultimately, this 60-day negotiation period is more about buying time to avoid catastrophe than completing a peace agreement. It is likely that a 'long-term provisional agreement' will persist for several months or years, maintaining an unstable balance that avoids full-scale war but does not achieve complete peace.
Why is Iran a country that the U.S. cannot easily manage?
The U.S. is the world's strongest military power, but Iran is not a mere weak state. Iran is the heir to 5,000 years of Persian civilization. The ancient Persian Empire once dominated Mesopotamia, Central Asia, and the entire Middle East. Today, while Iran faces economic challenges, its historical pride and geopolitical survival instincts remain robust.
The Iranian leadership is more accustomed to long-term attrition and asymmetric strategies than direct confrontation with the U.S. They prefer to utilize the Hormuz Strait, Shia networks, drone warfare, proxy wars, and psychological operations rather than engage in outright conflict. This is why, despite its overwhelming firepower, the U.S. struggles to maintain stable control over the entire Middle East.
Furthermore, Iran is not just a single nation; it is part of a vast geopolitical network connected to Shia militias in Iraq, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Houthi rebels in Yemen. While the U.S. and Israel may hold military superiority, stabilizing the Middle East in the long term presents a different challenge.
Moreover, the U.S. is also grappling with war fatigue in the Middle East. Following the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, there is a deep skepticism within American society regarding 'endless wars' in the region. President Trump maintains a tough stance while keeping the door open for diplomatic resolution, reflecting this sentiment.
Ultimately, the current situation in the Middle East is shifting from a simple military victory to a question of 'who will design the order in the long term.'
Now, a 'Noah Covenant' is needed.
Today, the Middle East is undergoing some changes through the Abraham Accords, with countries like Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco normalizing relations. However, this is not enough.
True peace is possible only when Judaism, Christianity, and Islam acknowledge their common roots. Both the Bible and the Quran, along with Jewish tradition, recognize Noah as a common ancestor of humanity. Abraham is also ultimately part of Noah's lineage.
Jews, Arabs, and Persians need to recognize that they are not entirely different entities but rather intertwined brother civilizations throughout history. I wish to call this the 'Noah Covenant.'
The Noah Covenant is not merely a diplomatic agreement; it is a declaration of mutual recognition between civilizations.
First, it acknowledges each other's right to exist. Second, it establishes principles for religious coexistence. Third, it transforms oil and energy from a basis for war into a foundation for shared prosperity. Fourth, it builds a new economic order in the Middle East that aligns with the AI era.
The Middle East is a land of civilizations before it is a land of oil. It is where Persian and Arabian, Hebrew and Mesopotamian civilizations intersected, and where humanity's religions, philosophies, and trade converged. Yet today, the world views the Middle East solely through the lens of war, terrorism, and oil disputes.
However, the region is also entering an era of competition in AI, semiconductors, digital finance, and smart cities. Saudi Arabia's NEOM city, the UAE's AI national strategy, and Qatar's energy and logistics hub strategy are all part of the trend preparing for a 'post-oil' era. Iran, too, will find it challenging to shape its future without cooperating with the international community in the long run.
Ultimately, the Middle East can no longer survive solely by past methods.
What should South Korea prepare for? South Korea must not view this situation as merely a diplomatic news story.
First, energy security is crucial. South Korea has a high dependence on Middle Eastern oil. Instability in the Hormuz Strait translates directly into economic risks for South Korea. Expanding strategic oil reserves and diversifying supply sources are essential.
Second, there are opportunities in shipbuilding, shipping, and defense industries. As tensions rise in the Middle East, demand for LNG carriers, oil tankers, and defense products is likely to increase. South Korean companies should connect geopolitical risks with industrial strategies.
Third, a balanced approach to Middle Eastern diplomacy is necessary. While South Korea is an ally of the U.S., it must also maintain close economic cooperation with Middle Eastern oil-producing nations. Practical balanced diplomacy is needed rather than excessive leaning towards one side.
Fourth, South Korea should consider its role as a 'civilizational mediator.' It is a rare country that has experienced colonization, war, industrialization, and democratization simultaneously. It is also a nation that has experienced both Eastern and Western, traditional and modern elements.
In the AI era, the world is once again questioning the balance between humanity and civilization, religion and technology. South Korea should aim to be more than just an economic nation; it should serve as a platform for civilizational dialogue and peace.
The Middle East stands at a crossroads of war and peace. The ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is an important first step. However, the cessation of gunfire does not guarantee peace.
True peace begins with recognizing that we are not forces to eliminate each other but rather part of the same humanity and civilization. Just as humanity rebuilt civilization after Noah's flood, today's Middle East must also establish a new order of coexistence.
The recent ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran may be recorded not merely as a military compromise but as a pivotal moment where human civilization turned away from the brink of catastrophe once again. The world is entering a massive transition marked by the AI revolution, geopolitical conflicts, energy restructuring, and civilizational clashes. In such times, military power alone cannot stabilize the world. Ultimately, a profound understanding of humanity and civilization, along with a philosophy that acknowledges each other's existence, is essential.
The 'Noah Covenant' embodies that question: Can humanity coexist after war? Can different religions and civilizations coexist? Can we discover our common fate beyond oil, nuclear weapons, and power struggles?
And that may well be the new path of civilization that humanity must take in the AI era.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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