KOSPI breaks 8,000 as oil retreat lifts Asia, though the rally rests on unfinished Iran deal

By Joseph Kwak Posted : May 26, 2026, 09:15 Updated : May 26, 2026, 09:16
코스피 8000 시대. Yonhap
SEOUL, May 26 (AJP) - South Korea's Kospi pushed above the 8,000 mark at Tuesday's open, reaching roughly 8,060 as the market reopened from a holiday to a weekend of falling oil prices and record highs across Asia, even as the diplomatic breakthrough driving the move remained far from settled.

The benchmark traded about 2.7 percent above Friday's close of 7,847.71. It marked only the second time the index has crossed 8,000 and the first time it has opened and sustained the level, after an earlier attempt on May 15 collapsed into a 6.1 percent rout by the close.

The advance reflected a sharp reversal in the single variable that has governed Korean equities for three months: the price of oil. The war between the United States, Israel and Iran, which erupted in late February, had effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz and driven crude sharply higher, weighing on energy-importing economies across Northeast Asia. That pressure eased over the weekend after U.S. President Donald Trump said an agreement with Iran to reopen the strait would be announced shortly.

Crude fell accordingly in early Asian trade. West Texas Intermediate dropped 5.87 percent to $90.93 a barrel and Brent declined 5.58 percent to $97.76. The relief was immediate, but its foundation was not. Trump himself cautioned that the framework was not yet final and that his negotiators should "not rush" into a deal — a reminder that the catalyst behind Tuesday's rally remains a provisional understanding rather than a concluded settlement.

Korean markets were closed Monday for the substitute holiday for Buddha's Birthday, as were those in Hong Kong, while U.S. exchanges were shut for Memorial Day. The Asian markets that did trade rose in unison. Japan's Nikkei 225 climbed 2.87 percent to a record close of 65,158.19, its steepest three-day gain in more than six years, while Taiwan's Taiex reached an all-time high, rising 2.91 percent to 43,495.92. China's CSI 300 added 0.91 percent, Australia's ASX 200 gained 0.45 percent and India's Nifty 50 rose 1.09 percent.

For Seoul, the implication was direct. Japan and Taiwan are Korea's closest structural counterparts — energy importers whose indices are anchored by semiconductors — and both set records while Korean markets were dark. Tuesday's open, in that light, was less a breakout than a convergence: Korea catching up to a move the region had already priced over the long weekend.

That distinction also separates this attempt from the failed one a fortnight ago. The Kospi had advanced from 7,000 to its first touch of 8,000 in just seven sessions. When it arrived on May 15, however, it was running ahead of an overnight gain on Wall Street rather than alongside a regional consensus. Foreign investors that day sold a net 5.6 trillion won, sending Samsung Electronics and SK hynix down more than 7 percent and dragging the index to a 6.1 percent loss.

The behavior of foreign investors remains the decisive variable. Overseas funds net-sold roughly 24 trillion won of Kospi shares over a recent six-session stretch, with the selling concentrated in the very chip stocks leading the rally. Domestic brokerages have characterized that flow as profit-taking after a rapid ascent rather than a structural withdrawal from Korean equities, though the distinction will only become clear in the sessions ahead. A labor dispute at Samsung Electronics adds a further domestic overhang, and the won — which weakened beyond 1,500 per dollar during the May 15 sell-off — will signal whether foreign sentiment is genuinely turning.

Analysts had anticipated the level before the holiday. NH Investment & Securities projected the Kospi to trade between 7,200 and 8,500 this week, citing earnings momentum, valuation appeal and hopes for an Iran ceasefire. By the opening bell on Tuesday, the market had claimed the upper half of that range.

Yet the durability of the move depends on a settlement that Washington itself has declined to finalize. Should the Iran framework stall — over uranium enrichment, the duration of restrictions or the timing of sanctions relief — the oil-price relief underpinning Tuesday's gains could prove as provisional as the diplomacy behind it. For now, the Kospi's record open reads less as a verdict on Korea's fundamentals than as the local expression of a regional bet that the worst of the energy shock has passed.

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