The North District of Busan is considered a key battleground in the upcoming by-election alongside the June 3 local elections. Initially, Ha Jung-woo of the Democratic Party held a lead, but as the election approaches, Han Dong-hoon, running as an independent, has gained significant momentum, shaking up the race. Analysts suggest that this election will serve as a test for Han's potential to reshape the conservative landscape and for the capabilities of political newcomer Ha.
Recent polling indicates that while Ha initially held a clear lead outside the margin of error, Han has rapidly closed the gap. Some surveys suggest a near tie or even a potential reversal in fortunes for Ha. In contrast, Park Min-sik of the People Power Party remains stagnant in the 20% range, struggling to gain traction.
Ha's strengths include his connection to the ruling party and the central government, which provide him with significant advantages. His status as the ruling party candidate and the support from President Lee Jae-myung and Busan mayoral candidate Jeon Jae-soo are seen as major assets. Ha has focused on grassroots campaigning to appeal to moderate voters and public sentiment.
However, he faces challenges, including controversies such as the 'hand-shaking scandal,' 'brother controversy,' and allegations of stock parking. Critics point out that his limited direct engagement with the district and his AI-focused messaging may not resonate with local issues.
Despite these challenges, Ha has an opportunity amid the division within the conservative vote. The failure of a unification between Park and Han may benefit the Democratic Party by splitting conservative votes. However, Han's rapid rise poses a significant threat, with reports suggesting that not only moderate voters but also some Democratic-leaning constituents are shifting toward Han.
Han, a prominent figure, is the biggest wildcard in this election. His recent polling surge has bolstered his image as a symbol of conservative reorganization. He aims to differentiate himself from the People Power Party and attract both disillusioned conservatives and moderate voters. Some surveys indicate that he has shown competitiveness in head-to-head matchups against Ha. Han has been actively engaging with the community, visiting markets and neighborhoods, which is credited for his recent rise in popularity.
However, as an independent candidate, he faces limitations in organizational strength, and his image as a potential presidential candidate may not align with local election dynamics. His confrontational stance against the People Power Party could also pose challenges for future conservative unity.
Han's opportunity lies in the narrative of conservative reorganization. If he can attract both disenchanted conservatives and moderate voters, he could not only secure a local victory but also gain symbolic leverage in the broader competition for leadership within the conservative camp. Nonetheless, the potential for strategic voting in favor of Park, bolstered by support from former President Park Geun-hye and the organizational strength of the People Power Party, remains a threat to Han. Additionally, the issue of post-election unity within the conservative camp is also a concern.
Park's strengths include the organizational power of the People Power Party and the consolidation of traditional conservative support. Drawing on his experience as a former Minister of Veterans Affairs and a lawmaker, he emphasizes a stable image. Notably, the public endorsement from former President Park Geun-hye is seen as a strategy to rally hardline conservatives.
However, the failure to unify with Han has weakened Park's position. Concerns about splitting the conservative vote have become a reality, leading to increased pressure for strategic choices among his supporters. In the competition with Han, Park's influence has diminished as he has lost a significant portion of conservative support.
Park's opportunity lies in the hidden conservative vote. Given the high proportion of elderly voters in North District, there remains a possibility for a last-minute consolidation of conservative support. His campaign is banking on organizational voting strength and the so-called 'shy conservative' voters.
However, Han's ability to attract not only moderate voters but also some conservatives poses a significant challenge to the traditional People Power Party framework. The failure to unify could also lead to internal conflicts within the party post-election.
Political analysts suggest that the outcome in North District will hinge on the ability to attract moderate voters and strategic voting. Regardless of whether a conservative unification occurs, the key variable will be which candidate can more effectively capture the sentiments of undecided and moderate voters in the final stretch of the campaign.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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