Early vote surge clouds DP landslide hopes as Korea heads into June 3 local elections

By Seo Hye Seung Posted : May 30, 2026, 08:53 Updated : May 30, 2026, 08:53
Early vote for June 3 elections draw higher turnout ratio than the last election four years ago as of Saturday, May 30 2026. Photo=AJP Yoo Na-hyun
SEOUL, May 30 (AJP) - South Korea’s June 3 local elections are no longer looking like the ruling Democratic Party’s walkover, as record early voting and tightening battleground races raise the odds of a more contested outcome than President Lee Jae Myung’s party had expected.

Early voting reached 12.11 percent as of 7 a.m. Saturday, with 5.41 million of 44.65 million eligible voters casting ballots, according to the National Election Commission. The figure was 1.45 percentage points higher than the same point in the 2022 local elections, underscoring heightened voter interest in the first nationwide test of the Lee administration since it took office last June after former President Yoon Suk Yeol’s ouster over his failed martial law bid.

The DP had once floated hopes of a near-sweep, possibly taking 15 of 16 metropolitan mayoral and gubernatorial posts, excluding only North Gyeongsang Province. But a JoongAng Sunday analysis of 382 opinion polls registered between March 1 and May 29 now projects the DP winning 9 to 14 regions, the People Power Party 2 to 7 and an independent up to one.

The forecast suggests the election has shifted from a referendum punishing the conservative bloc over the martial law crisis into a more complex test of whether Lee can convert high approval ratings into local power.
 
Key contested battleground in June 3 elections. From left contestants for Seoul, Daegu, and South Gyeongsang. The blue represents the ruling Democratic Party and the red the main opposition People Power Party. The poll was taken from May 20 to 21 by KSOI at CBS request.
Seoul remains the symbolic prize. DP candidate Chong Won-o is narrowly ahead of incumbent PPP Mayor Oh Se-hoon, with JoongAng Sunday estimating a 3.4 percentage-point gap and a 62 percent winning probability for Chong. A DP win in Seoul would give Lee a powerful mandate in the capital; an Oh comeback would give conservatives their clearest platform for recovery.

Daegu is another key test. PPP candidate Choo Kyung-ho is leading DP heavyweight Kim Boo-kyum by 4.3 percentage points, suggesting the conservative heartland may still resist the DP’s post-martial-law offensive.

Busan is also being closely watched, with DP candidate Chun Jae-soo challenging incumbent PPP Mayor Park Heong-joon. In the Busan Buk-A parliamentary by-election, independent Han Dong-hoon, former PPP leader, is running neck and neck with DP candidate Ha Jung-woo, while former PPP lawmaker Park Min-shik trails.

The Pyeongtaek-B by-election has become another high-profile fight, with Cho Kuk of the Rebuilding Korea Party, DP candidate Kim Yong-nam and PPP candidate Yu Eui-dong locked in a three-way race.

High early turnout does not automatically mean higher final turnout, as early voting increasingly replaces election-day voting. But the regional pattern is politically telling. Turnout was highest in South Jeolla and North Jeolla, including areas where the DP faces internal or independent challenges, while Daegu posted the lowest figure.
 
Voters head to poll stations for early vote during lunchtime in Sogong-dong, downtown Seoul, on May 29, 2026. AJP Yoo Na-hyun
For the DP, the question is whether early voting reflects organized liberal turnout strong enough to preserve a double-digit regional sweep. For the PPP, the goal is narrower but urgent: defend conservative strongholds, hold Seoul if possible and use by-election gains to show the party can rebuild after the Yoon crisis.

A DP victory in 12 or more regions would still be read as a governing-party win. But anything closer to single digits would mark a sharp retreat from the landslide narrative and give the opposition room to claim that the Lee administration’s honeymoon is fading faster than expected. 
 
Seo Hye Seung

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