SEOUL, June 03 (AJP) - South Korea’s June 3 local elections are shaping up as a crucial political test one year after the launch of President Lee Jae Myung’s government, with the outcome expected to affect the administration’s governing momentum as well as the futures of several major political figures.
The elections, the first nationwide vote since the change in government, are widely viewed as more than a contest over local power. Political observers say the results could trigger broader changes across both liberal and conservative camps ahead of the next presidential race in 2030.
The ruling Democratic Party of Korea said Tuesday it classified nine of the country’s 16 metropolitan mayoral and gubernatorial races, including the western port city of Incheon, Gyeonggi Province and Gangwon Province, as leaning in its favor. Party officials said they expect to win at least nine regions and as many as 15.
The main opposition People Power Party said it held advantages in conservative regions, including the southern city of Daegu and North Gyeongsang Province, while describing nine regions, including Seoul and the southern port city of Busan as battlegrounds. The conservative party projected it could win between two and 11 races.
A victory for the ruling party would likely strengthen the Lee administration as it enters its second year in office and give the government and the party greater justification to push ahead with reform legislation.
A poor showing for the ruling bloc, however, could weaken the administration early in its second year and force the Democratic Party to slow its legislative drive in the National Assembly, where it currently holds a majority.
The elections are also expected to have major implications for the political futures of ruling party leader Jung Chung-rae and main opposition leader Jang Dong-hyeok.
Both leaders have faced criticism for relying heavily on hard-line supporters while seeking to maintain control of their parties, making them vulnerable to internal backlash if the election results disappoint.
Regional strongholds are seen as particularly important. Jung could face a weakened position within the ruling party if it fails to hold North Jeolla Province, while Jang could suffer a major political setback if conservatives lose Daegu, long considered the heartland of South Korea’s conservative movement.
The North Jeolla gubernatorial race has drawn attention after independent candidate Kim Kwan-young, who was expelled from the Democratic Party over a controversy involving chauffeur service payments, mounted a reelection bid. Some ruling party supporters have framed the race as a referendum on Jung’s leadership.
Several heavyweight politicians running in local races and parliamentary by-elections are also seen as trying to position themselves for future presidential bids.
Former Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum, the Democratic Party’s candidate for Daegu mayor, could emerge as a major presidential contender if elected. Analysts say a victory in the conservative stronghold would bolster his image as a symbol of national unity.
Meanwhile, Oh Se-hoon, the People Power Party’s candidate for Seoul mayor, is seeking a fifth term. A win could strengthen his standing as a leading conservative presidential hopeful capable of appealing to both hard-line conservatives and moderates following the political fallout from former President Yoon Suk Yeol’s martial law declaration and subsequent impeachment.
Attention is also focused on parliamentary by-elections involving former Justice Minister Cho Kuk and former ruling party leader Han Dong-hoon.
Cho, running for a National Assembly seat in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi Province, is viewed by liberal observers as a potential future presidential contender if he returns to parliament. His party, the Rebuilding Korea Party, currently holds 12 seats in the National Assembly.
Han, running as an independent candidate in Busan’s Buk-gu after being expelled from the People Power Party, is also seen as a possible future presidential candidate if elected. Political analysts say his return to parliament could reignite tensions with Jang and reshape the conservative opposition bloc, particularly if Han pushes a reform agenda centered on his opposition to Yoon’s martial law declaration.
Both Cho and Han have pledged to remain in their constituencies and prepare for the 2028 general elections if they lose Tuesday’s races.
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