Investment in artificial intelligence (AI) data centers has triggered a shortage of memory chips, leading to rising prices for electronics and cloud services. Morgan Stanley has labeled this phenomenon as 'chipflation,' indicating that the memory bottleneck has evolved into a macroeconomic concern beyond the semiconductor industry.
According to a report by Reuters on June 3, Morgan Stanley stated in a 66-page document that "the issue that began with AI infrastructure bottlenecks is now spreading to hardware margins, device purchasing power, cloud costs, inflation, and policy, becoming a macroeconomic worry."
The root cause of the price increases is the soaring demand for memory used in AI applications. Demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and DRAM has surged, but building new factories and expanding production capacity takes years. While some semiconductor companies have begun to expand, Morgan Stanley believes that the complexity and costs involved will make it difficult to resolve the supply shortage in the short term.
Analysts suggest that this situation may differ from past semiconductor cycles. Major cloud providers and AI companies are securing production capacity through long-term contracts and advance purchases, creating a competitive environment where traditional PC and smartphone manufacturers are vying for a more limited supply. Morgan Stanley characterized this as a 'sustained supply-demand adjustment' rather than a temporary boom.
The cost burden is already shifting to the hardware and cloud markets. Reuters reported that electronics companies like Sony and Lenovo have raised prices, and major tech firms have indicated additional spending due to rising memory costs. Microsoft revealed in April that approximately $25 billion of its projected $190 billion in spending for the year would stem from increased chip prices.
Rising prices could dampen demand for PCs and smartphones. Market research firm IDC estimates that the PC and smartphone markets could significantly shrink in 2026 due to price pressures, particularly affecting lower-priced products where purchase delays are likely.
Conversely, memory manufacturers are poised to see improved performance. Reuters noted that Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron account for about 90% of global DRAM production, with their stock prices rising more than threefold this year. Morgan Stanley analyzed that while memory companies benefit from price increases, margin improvements, and enhanced visibility, hardware manufacturers face challenges in absorbing costs, passing on prices, redesigning products, and the risk of reduced demand.
The U.S.-China semiconductor conflict is also exacerbating supply uncertainties. Export restrictions and supply chain fragmentation are tightening memory supply further. Morgan Stanley believes that while subsidies from various countries may help expand production capacity in the long term, they are unlikely to alleviate short-term price pressures.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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