In the June 3 local elections, Oh Se-hoon, the candidate from the People Power Party, secured his fifth term as Seoul mayor, demonstrating his political strength. However, the next four years for the Seoul administration are expected to be challenging. With the power dynamics in the Seoul City Council shifting towards the Democratic Party, Oh's new term faces the daunting prospect of a divided government.
According to the Central Election Management Commission on June 7, the Democratic Party has secured 81 of the 118 seats in the Seoul City Council, while the People Power Party holds only 37 seats. This significant majority allows the Democratic Party to potentially override the mayor's veto power, as they surpass the two-thirds majority needed to do so under local government law.
Political analysts suggest that this shift means "half of Seoul's power has returned to the Democratic Party." Even if Mayor Oh leads the administration, he will find it difficult to operate independently on matters such as ordinance enactment, budget formulation, and major policy initiatives without the cooperation of the Democratic-controlled council.
Seoul has a history of political conflict under a divided government. Oh previously clashed with a Democratic majority in the city council after the 2010 local elections, notably during the debate over free school meals. The council pushed for universal free meals, while Oh advocated for selective welfare, leading to a public referendum that resulted in his resignation due to low voter turnout. This incident is often cited as a prime example of how political disputes can engulf city governance.
Since returning to the mayor's office in the April 2021 by-election, the situation has not significantly improved. At that time, the Democratic Party held 99 of 110 seats in the city council. Oh attempted to restructure various projects initiated during the tenure of former Mayor Park Won-soon, but faced substantial resistance from the council.
One of the most emblematic conflicts was over TBS (Traffic Broadcasting System). Disputes over financial support and allegations of bias led to prolonged tensions between the city and the council, which were only resolved after the People Power Party gained a majority in the 2022 local elections and moved to halt funding. Oh described the situation as akin to "hitting a rock with an egg."
Given the Democratic Party's acquisition of 81 seats, significant changes in the dynamics of Seoul's governance are anticipated.
The TBS issue is likely to resurface as a point of contention. Observers speculate that the Democratic-controlled council may revisit the financial support for TBS under the pretext of restoring its public broadcasting functions. TBS has become a politically charged issue between Oh's administration and the Democratic Party.
Budgetary conflicts are also expected. Oh's key initiatives, including the Great Han River Project, Han River Bus, Seoul Run, Guaranteed Income, and Automated Transportation policies, may face cuts or adjustments during the council's review process. If the Democratic Party emphasizes "prioritizing the people's livelihood," the pace of these core projects could be affected.
However, some analysts suggest that the current political landscape differs from that of 2010 or 2021. Oh's political stature has changed; as a five-term mayor and a potential presidential candidate, he carries more weight than before. His extensive administrative experience may lead him to pursue a more pragmatic approach, balancing direct confrontations with negotiations on specific policies.
The Democratic Party also faces its own challenges. If it is perceived as obstructing the Seoul administration, it could face backlash from voters. Seoul residents tend to prioritize solutions to transportation, housing, and livelihood issues over ideological disputes. Unconditional opposition or political clashes could lead to voter fatigue.
The history of Seoul politics has consistently shown the costs of failed cooperation. When the city and the council clash, the citizens bear the brunt of the consequences, with project delays, budget disputes, and administrative gaps ultimately leading to inconveniences in daily life.
A political insider remarked, "If the Democratic council focuses solely on asserting political dominance rather than providing checks and balances, the Seoul administration could descend into extreme confrontation again. Conversely, Mayor Oh must demonstrate leadership through collaboration and persuasion rather than unilateral action."
The success of the Seoul administration over the next four years will depend not on numbers but on political acumen. Whether the Democratic Party's 81 seats will serve as a mechanism for checks and balances or become a source of conflict will be determined by the evolving relationship between the Seoul administration and the city council.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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