Within hours, Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was dead, and confidence was running high in Washington. Many believed Iran might quickly unravel, much as Saddam Hussein's regime collapsed within weeks of the U.S. invasion in 2003. U.S. President Donald Trump, never one to undersell a moment, boasted the conflict in the Middle East would be over "in four to five weeks."
But 100 days on, the conflict has evolved into a grinding stalemate, with no clear end in sight.
What was promised and what has been achieved are starkly different. Iran's theocratic regime — battered, grief-stricken and economically strangled — has not collapsed. Ali Khamenei's son, Mojtaba, has stepped into the role, and if anything, the hard-liners around him have consolidated power rather than cracked under pressure. Once again, the Islamic Republic has shown itself to be more than any single man.
The human cost, meanwhile, has been staggering. Iranian military and civilian casualties have surpassed 3,500 dead, with tens of thousands wounded. About a dozen American service members have been killed. Even countries like Oman and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), thought to be bystanders, have seen casualties on their soil. This was not supposed to be that kind of war.
And then there is the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's decision to block the critical chokepoint, through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil passes, transformed a military operation into an economic crisis with global consequences.
The number of vessels transiting the strait fell from roughly 100 per day to just a few. U.S. crude prices surged nearly 40 percent. Oil inventories dropped to their lowest level in more than two decades. Norwegian energy consultancy Rystad Energy estimates that repairing damage to Middle East energy infrastructure could cost up to $60 billion.
The diplomatic landscape also looks nearly as bleak. The coalition of Gulf Arab states has frayed badly following Iranian attacks on neighbors cooperating with Washington.
North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies declined Trump's request for military support, leaving a lasting bruise on the alliance.
The U.S. and Israel, long bound by an almost unconditional partnership, now look at each other with growing suspicion, with American officials involved in back-channel negotiations reportedly fearing that Israeli intelligence services have been listening in on their conversations in what they believe goes beyond the permissive standards of allied espionage.
Talks continue, fitfully, with Pakistan serving as an unlikely intermediary. Washington and Tehran have come tantalizingly close to a broad framework that would begin with the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to restore shipping, and then proceed to formal nuclear negotiation.
But disagreements on core issues remain unresolved. Trump insists that Iran cannot be allowed to possess nuclear weapons, while Iran demands that sanctions be lifted and some $24 billion in frozen assets released before any meaningful concessions.
Trump's own remarks reflect how stalled the conflict has become. Early last week, he said a deal could come "this weekend" and that Iran was "quite close" to signing. But just a few days later, he was comparing the conflict to Viet Nam, saying, "You know, the Vietnam War lasted 19 years," as if it did not matter.
Tensions continue with repeated attacks and retaliation. The U.S. and Iran have exchanged drone and missile strikes, but neither side wants full-scale war, and neither can find an exit. In Lebanon, Israel has expanded its strikes on Hezbollah in the south.
When the U.S. launched its airstrikes on Iran, the Trump administration had two goals: regime change in Tehran and the destruction of Iran's nuclear program. But neither has been achieved. The leadership has changed, but the regime has not. Nuclear facilities were struck, but Iran's remaining highly enriched uranium, the material that could be turned into a weapon, remains unresolved.
Trump has been down this road before. During his first term in 2018, he withdrew from the nuclear deal signed under then-President Barack Obama, which had required Iran to reduce its enriched uranium stockpile by 98 percent from roughly 10,000 kg to 300 kg.
With midterm elections in November approaching, Trump would need a better deal than Obama's, the one he could use to justify his war in Iran.
In Washington, hard questions are being asked: why did this war begin, how does it end, and what does "winning" even mean? The bombs have fallen and talks continue, but these key questions remain unanswered.
As the conflict reaches 100 days, the world waits to see whether this conflict ends in a handshake or something far worse.
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