Japanese media are closely examining the complex strategic calculations behind Chinese President Xi Jinping's first visit to North Korea in seven years. As North Korea strengthens its ties with Russia, China is looking to regain influence over the Korean Peninsula, while North Korea aims to assess the potential for renewed dialogue with U.S. President Donald Trump.
The Nihon Keizai Shimbun (Nikkei) reported that Xi will visit North Korea on June 8-9 as a state guest to meet with Kim Jong-un. The paper analyzed that North Korea's interest in gauging Trump's stance on the Korean Peninsula coincides with China's desire to assert control over the North Korean nuclear issue. Nikkei noted that each time Xi and Kim have met, the presence of Trump has been a significant factor. Xi's last visit to North Korea was in June 2019, shortly before Trump visited South Korea and held a third summit with Kim at Panmunjom.
Nikkei interpreted that North Korea is particularly interested in Trump's views on its nuclear development. In an April press conference, Trump indicated that Kim possesses a significant number of nuclear weapons. While the official U.S. stance remains focused on North Korea's denuclearization, North Korea may view Trump's acknowledgment of its nuclear capabilities as a notable advancement.
The ongoing tensions surrounding denuclearization are also a key factor in this meeting. Following a May summit between the U.S. and China, the U.S. announced that both countries reaffirmed their shared goal of North Korean denuclearization, but the Chinese side did not mention denuclearization in its statement. The Asahi Shimbun reported that Xi did not use the term 'denuclearization' in public remarks during last September's North Korea-China meeting or the May U.S.-China summit. Just before Xi's visit, Kim Yo-jong, the deputy director of the Workers' Party, emphasized North Korea's status as a nuclear power, raising questions about whether Xi might act as a bridge between the U.S. and North Korea.
From China's perspective, North Korea's growing alignment with Russia poses a challenge. Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, North Korea has reportedly received military and technical support from Russia in exchange for weapons and troops. Nikkei analyzed that China values stability on the Korean Peninsula but does not want to see Russia's influence over North Korea increase through military cooperation. There is also a calculation to take the lead on the nuclear issue and use it as leverage in negotiations with Trump. Asahi Shimbun echoed concerns that China is wary of North Korea's tilt toward Russia and may seek to strengthen economic support to keep North Korea within its sphere of influence.
The Yomiuri Shimbun suggested that discussions during this meeting may include securing a maritime route for Chinese vessels to access the East Sea via the Tumen River. The lower Tumen River, about 15 kilometers long, runs between Russian and North Korean territory, making it difficult for Chinese ships to navigate freely into the East Sea. In China, the right to access the East Sea is referred to as 'chuhaiquan,' and there are hopes to connect this with development in northeastern Jilin Province.
Yomiuri reported that if China can operate small military vessels through this route, it could gain military and security advantages aimed at South Korea and Japan. If Xi secures North Korea's consent during this visit, it could be seen as a diplomatic success for China and potentially lead to practical trilateral discussions among North Korea, China, and Russia. However, Yomiuri noted that the bridges over the Tumen River are only about 10 meters above the water, posing challenges for larger Chinese vessels.
On the civilian front, signs of recovery and limitations are mixed. According to Asahi Shimbun, trade between North Korea and China from January to April this year reached approximately $990 million, about 30% higher than the same period in 2019, and the international train service between Beijing and Pyongyang resumed in March after nearly six years. However, exchanges involving workers and tourism have not returned to previous levels.
Asahi reported that Russia's offers of wages approximately double those in China have led to a trend of North Korean workers being prioritized for placement in Russia, resulting in labor shortages in North Korean restaurants and factories in northeastern China. A North Korean restaurant in Shenyang, which had over ten female workers before the COVID-19 pandemic, now has only four, and performances have reportedly been suspended due to the lack of staff.
The critical question of this meeting is whether China will treat North Korea as a de facto nuclear power. Asahi warned that if China does not clearly pressure for denuclearization, North Korea may accelerate its nuclear and missile development, potentially worsening the security environment for South Korea and Japan. Ahead of his visit, Xi published an article in the Rodong Sinmun advocating opposition to the 'revival of militarism,' which Asahi interpreted as a message aimed at Japan. The South Korean government, which is promoting dialogue between the two Koreas, is also closely monitoring the outcomes of this meeting.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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