On June 7, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu received a warning from U.S. President Donald Trump following airstrikes exchanged with Iran. Trump cautioned, "Bibi, you better be careful. Otherwise, you will soon be alone." Amid domestic challenges, including opposition calls for a government change and ongoing criminal trials, attention is focused on Netanyahu's strategy as he leads the country through conflict.
According to Axios, Trump urged Netanyahu to halt the war with Iran, stating on his social media platform Truth Social that "Israel and Iran are seeking an immediate ceasefire" and that "if ignorance or foolishness does not interfere, final negotiations for peace will proceed." This indicates a clear desire to end the conflict.
Trump's intervention has led to a temporary halt in hostilities. Consequently, international oil prices, which had surged by over 5%, ended the day up by only 1%. The average retail gasoline price in the U.S. remains around $4.164 per gallon, down from $4.546 a month ago but still $1 higher than a year ago when it was $3.126.
In the context of potential early elections in Israel, which could occur within three months, analysts suggest that Netanyahu is recalibrating his strategy. Shalom Yerushalmi, a columnist for the Times of Israel, noted that unnamed sources close to Netanyahu indicated he wanted to topple the Iranian regime before the elections. However, with that regional plan now in disarray, he is reassessing his electoral strategy.
The Jerusalem Post reported that the Israeli elections were originally scheduled to take place before October 27. However, if the Knesset's dissolution bill is finalized, elections could be held between September 8 and October 20. Yerushalmi commented that while Netanyahu likely prefers the latest date of October 20, the ultra-Orthodox Shas party, part of the coalition, favors holding elections on September 15 to boost voter turnout after the Jewish holiday.
Meanwhile, support for Netanyahu is reportedly declining in northern regions of Israel. Reuters cited a poll from the Hebrew University’s Agam Institute, indicating that Netanyahu's Likud party is losing favor among residents near the Lebanese border. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun stated, "I will not meet with Prime Minister Netanyahu until the war is over," adding that military solutions cannot guarantee safety in northern Israel, according to CNN.
In this political landscape, former Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot is emerging as a centrist dark horse. The local daily Haaretz noted that Eisenkot, a newcomer in a field of veteran politicians, is perceived as a refreshing option by many.
A Channel 12 poll conducted on June 4 projected that Netanyahu's Likud party would secure 23 seats in the upcoming elections, making it the largest party. However, in Israel's parliamentary system, a majority of 61 seats out of 120 is necessary to form a government. The coalition is expected to hold 51 seats, while the opposition is projected to have 59 seats. If this scenario unfolds, the casting vote will likely rest with the 10 seats held by Arab parties.
* This article has been translated by AI.
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